La Vina Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,419	2383.4	− 2436	−52.6	× 29 / 169	−9
4	41,422	2414.1	− 2485	−70.9	× 40 / 169	−16.8
5	41,423	2402.7	− 2528	−125.3	× 25 / 169	−18.5
6	41,426	2527.7	− 2552	−24.3	× 20 / 169	−2.9
7	41,427	2500.8	− 2567	−66.2	× 23 / 169	−9
8	41,430	2452.1	− 2586	−133.9	× 32 / 169	−25.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,325	2405.0	− 2436	−31	× 33 / 183	−5.6
4	38,326	2395.1	− 2485	−89.9	× 32 / 183	−15.7
5	38,329	2460.5	− 2528	−67.5	× 42 / 183	−15.5
6	38,331	2494.8	− 2552	−57.2	× 28 / 183	−8.8
7	38,333	2543.9	− 2567	−23.1	× 22 / 183	−2.8
8	38,335	2530.1	− 2586	−55.9	× 26 / 183	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,237	2398.7	− 2436	−37.3	× 26 / 191	−5.1
4	39,239	2424.8	− 2485	−60.2	× 36 / 191	−11.3
5	39,241	2478.0	− 2528	−50	× 32 / 191	−8.4
6	39,242	2516.2	− 2552	−35.8	× 44 / 191	−8.2
7	39,244	2487.9	− 2567	−79.1	× 31 / 191	−12.8
8	39,247	2598.4	− 2586	12.4	× 22 / 191	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,276	2427.4	− 2436	−8.6	× 31 / 194	−1.4
4	39,277	2445.5	− 2485	−39.5	× 22 / 194	−4.5
5	39,280	2492.0	− 2528	−36	× 36 / 194	−6.7
6	39,281	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 32 / 194	−2.9
7	39,283	2494.8	− 2567	−72.2	× 43 / 194	−16
8	39,285	2523.2	− 2586	−62.8	× 30 / 194	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,422	2364.9	− 2436	−71.1	× 23 / 179	−9.1
4	39,423	2422.7	− 2485	−62.3	× 30 / 179	−10.4
5	39,424	2517.2	− 2528	−10.8	× 22 / 179	−1.3
6	39,425	2532.4	− 2552	−19.6	× 32 / 179	−3.5
7	39,426	2497.2	− 2567	−69.8	× 31 / 179	−12.1
8	39,427	2531.4	− 2586	−54.6	× 41 / 179	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,199	2377.0	− 2436	−59	× 21 / 143	−8.7
4	39,200	2412.7	− 2485	−72.3	× 24 / 143	−12.1
5	39,201	2425.5	− 2528	−102.5	× 23 / 143	−16.5
6	39,202	2444.8	− 2552	−107.2	× 21 / 143	−15.7
7	39,203	2528.4	− 2567	−38.6	× 26 / 143	−7
8	39,204	2553.8	− 2586	−32.2	× 28 / 143	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,254	2373.3	− 2436	−62.7	× 23 / 138	−10.5
4	39,255	2473.2	− 2485	−11.8	× 20 / 138	−1.7
5	39,256	2447.1	− 2528	−80.9	× 24 / 138	−14.1
6	39,257	2490.2	− 2552	−61.8	× 23 / 138	−10.3
7	39,258	2487.3	− 2567	−79.7	× 23 / 138	−13.3
8	39,259	2561.0	− 2586	−25	× 25 / 138	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,080	2363.1	− 2436	−72.9	× 25 / 141	−12.9
4	39,081	2423.2	− 2485	−61.8	× 22 / 141	−9.6
5	39,082	2459.4	− 2528	−68.6	× 21 / 141	−10.2
6	39,083	2504.7	− 2552	−47.3	× 27 / 141	−9.1
7	39,084	2502.0	− 2567	−65	× 22 / 141	−10.1
8	39,085	2497.8	− 2586	−88.2	× 24 / 141	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,853	2356.4	− 2436	−79.6	× 24 / 138	−13.8
4	38,854	2374.8	− 2485	−110.2	× 25 / 138	−20
5	38,855	2416.8	− 2528	−111.2	× 22 / 138	−17.7
6	38,856	2522.8	− 2552	−29.2	× 22 / 138	−4.7
7	38,857	2529.1	− 2567	−37.9	× 22 / 138	−6
8	38,858	2485.7	− 2586	−100.3	× 23 / 138	−16.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −82, −56, −44, −41, −49, −66, −54, −67, −79 → −59.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 26 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 12.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.9 × 2.66 = 34.3. Upper limit −25.5, lower limit −94.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.