Bass Lake Joint Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,116	2414.4	− 2436	−21.6	× 95 / 539	−3.8
4	41,117	2455.6	− 2485	−29.4	× 80 / 539	−4.4
5	41,120	2490.7	− 2528	−37.3	× 88 / 539	−6.1
6	41,121	2513.6	− 2552	−38.4	× 95 / 539	−6.8
7	41,124	2523.6	− 2567	−43.4	× 94 / 539	−7.6
8	41,125	2540.9	− 2586	−45.1	× 87 / 539	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,019	2416.8	− 2436	−19.2	× 98 / 547	−3.4
4	38,021	2468.2	− 2485	−16.8	× 89 / 547	−2.7
5	38,023	2482.0	− 2528	−46	× 87 / 547	−7.3
6	38,024	2526.5	− 2552	−25.5	× 83 / 547	−3.9
7	38,027	2537.0	− 2567	−30	× 95 / 547	−5.2
8	38,029	2539.6	− 2586	−46.4	× 95 / 547	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,920	2428.5	− 2436	−7.5	× 102 / 528	−1.4
4	38,922	2474.4	− 2485	−10.6	× 92 / 528	−1.8
5	38,925	2480.6	− 2528	−47.4	× 90 / 528	−8.1
6	38,926	2487.6	− 2552	−64.4	× 87 / 528	−10.6
7	38,929	2544.3	− 2567	−22.7	× 87 / 528	−3.7
8	38,930	2552.8	− 2586	−33.2	× 70 / 528	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,941	2434.6	− 2436	−1.4	× 90 / 559	−0.2
4	38,944	2462.0	− 2485	−23	× 106 / 559	−4.4
5	38,945	2479.2	− 2528	−48.8	× 92 / 559	−8
6	38,948	2494.6	− 2552	−57.4	× 97 / 559	−10
7	38,949	2531.3	− 2567	−35.7	× 89 / 559	−5.7
8	38,952	2573.1	− 2586	−12.9	× 85 / 559	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,104	2408.2	− 2436	−27.8	× 96 / 559	−4.8
4	39,105	2484.8	− 2485	−0.2	× 84 / 559	0
5	39,106	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 110 / 559	−8.7
6	39,107	2492.4	− 2552	−59.6	× 86 / 559	−9.2
7	39,108	2517.2	− 2567	−49.8	× 99 / 559	−8.8
8	39,109	2522.7	− 2586	−63.3	× 84 / 559	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,089	2384.3	− 2436	−51.7	× 83 / 493	−8.7
4	38,090	2437.2	− 2485	−47.8	× 88 / 493	−8.5
5	38,091	2446.5	− 2528	−81.5	× 84 / 493	−13.9
6	38,092	2499.8	− 2552	−52.2	× 76 / 493	−8
7	38,093	2496.6	− 2567	−70.4	× 90 / 493	−12.9
8	38,094	2513.8	− 2586	−72.2	× 72 / 493	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,851	2399.6	− 2436	−36.4	× 87 / 534	−5.9
4	38,852	2459.8	− 2485	−25.2	× 81 / 534	−3.8
5	38,853	2468.3	− 2528	−59.7	× 99 / 534	−11.1
6	38,854	2463.7	− 2552	−88.3	× 91 / 534	−15
7	38,855	2504.5	− 2567	−62.5	× 85 / 534	−9.9
8	38,856	2497.0	− 2586	−89	× 91 / 534	−15.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,906	2403.2	− 2436	−32.8	× 82 / 520	−5.2
4	38,907	2458.4	− 2485	−26.6	× 85 / 520	−4.3
5	38,908	2491.0	− 2528	−37	× 88 / 520	−6.3
6	38,909	2479.1	− 2552	−72.9	× 94 / 520	−13.2
7	38,910	2484.2	− 2567	−82.8	× 88 / 520	−14
8	38,911	2514.9	− 2586	−71.1	× 83 / 520	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,738	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 72 / 513	−2.4
4	38,739	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 83 / 513	−7.4
5	38,740	2456.2	− 2528	−71.8	× 85 / 513	−11.9
6	38,741	2483.3	− 2552	−68.7	× 87 / 513	−11.7
7	38,742	2486.6	− 2567	−80.4	× 103 / 513	−16.1
8	38,743	2492.1	− 2586	−93.9	× 83 / 513	−15.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,511	2397.1	− 2436	−38.9	× 111 / 537	−8
4	38,512	2453.9	− 2485	−31.1	× 78 / 537	−4.5
5	38,513	2453.7	− 2528	−74.3	× 82 / 537	−11.3
6	38,514	2471.6	− 2552	−80.4	× 84 / 537	−12.6
7	38,515	2506.1	− 2567	−60.9	× 84 / 537	−9.5
8	38,516	2516.8	− 2586	−69.2	× 98 / 537	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −36, −31, −30, −30, −41, −63, −61, −54, −65, −59 → −47
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2021: 22 · 2021→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 7 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 7.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.2 × 2.66 = 19.2. Upper limit −27.8, lower limit −66.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.