Wilsona Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,876	2351.1	− 2436	−84.9	× 161 / 882	−15.5
4	38,877	2430.9	− 2485	−54.1	× 135 / 882	−8.3
5	38,880	2465.0	− 2528	−63	× 140 / 882	−10
6	38,882	2489.5	− 2552	−62.5	× 140 / 882	−9.9
7	38,884	2484.3	− 2567	−82.7	× 150 / 882	−14.1
8	38,885	2466.9	− 2586	−119.1	× 156 / 882	−21.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,024	2385.4	− 2436	−50.6	× 153 / 880	−8.8
4	36,027	2397.4	− 2485	−87.6	× 163 / 880	−16.2
5	36,029	2480.8	− 2528	−47.2	× 136 / 880	−7.3
6	36,030	2470.2	− 2552	−81.8	× 141 / 880	−13.1
7	36,033	2494.9	− 2567	−72.1	× 137 / 880	−11.2
8	36,035	2480.9	− 2586	−105.1	× 150 / 880	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,740	2388.2	− 2436	−47.8	× 135 / 853	−7.6
4	36,743	2422.2	− 2485	−62.8	× 152 / 853	−11.2
5	36,745	2460.0	− 2528	−68	× 155 / 853	−12.4
6	36,746	2481.8	− 2552	−70.2	× 137 / 853	−11.3
7	36,749	2471.1	− 2567	−95.9	× 141 / 853	−15.9
8	36,750	2507.1	− 2586	−78.9	× 133 / 853	−12.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,707	2376.2	− 2436	−59.8	× 113 / 830	−8.1
4	36,709	2420.5	− 2485	−64.5	× 136 / 830	−10.6
5	36,711	2440.7	− 2528	−87.3	× 150 / 830	−15.8
6	36,713	2445.6	− 2552	−106.4	× 161 / 830	−20.6
7	36,715	2487.8	− 2567	−79.2	× 118 / 830	−11.3
8	36,717	2467.5	− 2586	−118.5	× 152 / 830	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,874	2387.5	− 2436	−48.5	× 140 / 799	−8.5
4	36,875	2415.4	− 2485	−69.6	× 121 / 799	−10.5
5	36,876	2423.9	− 2528	−104.1	× 127 / 799	−16.5
6	36,877	2452.1	− 2552	−99.9	× 140 / 799	−17.5
7	36,878	2458.6	− 2567	−108.4	× 143 / 799	−19.4
8	36,879	2482.3	− 2586	−103.7	× 128 / 799	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,765	2353.7	− 2436	−82.3	× 133 / 816	−13.4
4	36,766	2409.6	− 2485	−75.4	× 135 / 816	−12.5
5	36,767	2401.8	− 2528	−126.2	× 133 / 816	−20.6
6	36,768	2421.6	− 2552	−130.4	× 151 / 816	−24.1
7	36,769	2424.4	− 2567	−142.6	× 128 / 816	−22.4
8	36,770	2423.1	− 2586	−162.9	× 136 / 816	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,782	2372.4	− 2436	−63.6	× 140 / 799	−11.1
4	36,783	2430.7	− 2485	−54.3	× 121 / 799	−8.2
5	36,784	2406.8	− 2528	−121.2	× 136 / 799	−20.6
6	36,785	2400.5	− 2552	−151.5	× 135 / 799	−25.6
7	36,786	2425.3	− 2567	−141.7	× 141 / 799	−25
8	36,787	2420.7	− 2586	−165.3	× 126 / 799	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,630	2380.6	− 2436	−55.4	× 118 / 786	−8.3
4	36,631	2406.6	− 2485	−78.4	× 149 / 786	−14.9
5	36,632	2423.2	− 2528	−104.8	× 128 / 786	−17.1
6	36,633	2417.6	− 2552	−134.4	× 122 / 786	−20.9
7	36,634	2421.7	− 2567	−145.3	× 131 / 786	−24.2
8	36,635	2423.1	− 2586	−162.9	× 138 / 786	−28.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,467	2386.8	− 2436	−49.2	× 128 / 783	−8
4	36,468	2434.3	− 2485	−50.7	× 130 / 783	−8.4
5	36,469	2412.2	− 2528	−115.8	× 140 / 783	−20.7
6	36,470	2405.5	− 2552	−146.5	× 133 / 783	−24.9
7	36,471	2431.7	− 2567	−135.3	× 125 / 783	−21.6
8	36,472	2409.4	− 2586	−176.6	× 127 / 783	−28.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−112

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −79, −75, −71, −88, −89, −120, −117, −114, −112 → −96.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 8.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.1 × 2.66 = 21.5. Upper limit −74.6, lower limit −117.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.