Shelyn Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,837	2421.2	− 2436	−14.8	× 59 / 253	−3.5
4	39,839	2491.6	− 2485	6.6	× 71 / 253	1.9
5	39,841	2518.4	− 2528	−9.6	× 59 / 253	−2.2
6	39,843	2544.0	− 2552	−8	× 64 / 253	−2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,913	2454.8	− 2436	18.8	× 46 / 228	3.8
4	36,915	2482.3	− 2485	−2.7	× 60 / 228	−0.7
5	36,917	2506.0	− 2528	−22	× 69 / 228	−6.7
6	36,919	2545.9	− 2552	−6.1	× 53 / 228	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,690	2456.3	− 2436	20.3	× 53 / 225	4.8
4	37,692	2482.0	− 2485	−3	× 48 / 225	−0.6
5	37,695	2483.6	− 2528	−44.4	× 58 / 225	−11.4
6	37,697	2542.5	− 2552	−9.5	× 66 / 225	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,635	2450.3	− 2436	14.3	× 55 / 219	3.6
4	37,637	2504.7	− 2485	19.7	× 53 / 219	4.8
5	37,639	2500.3	− 2528	−27.7	× 50 / 219	−6.3
6	37,641	2523.2	− 2552	−28.8	× 61 / 219	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,846	2450.6	− 2436	14.6	× 52 / 204	3.7
4	37,847	2493.8	− 2485	8.8	× 52 / 204	2.2
5	37,848	2530.2	− 2528	2.2	× 53 / 204	0.6
6	37,849	2555.1	− 2552	3.1	× 47 / 204	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,735	2452.7	− 2436	16.7	× 63 / 206	5.1
4	37,736	2502.9	− 2485	17.9	× 39 / 206	3.4
5	37,737	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 65 / 206	−17.2
6	37,738	2515.3	− 2552	−36.7	× 39 / 206	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,780	2512.3	− 2436	76.3	× 63 / 226	21.3
4	37,781	2494.8	− 2485	9.8	× 67 / 226	2.9
5	37,782	2527.6	− 2528	−0.4	× 39 / 226	−0.1
6	37,783	2546.5	− 2552	−5.5	× 57 / 226	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						23

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,630	2511.9	− 2436	75.9	× 61 / 232	20
4	37,631	2511.9	− 2485	26.9	× 64 / 232	7.4
5	37,632	2473.9	− 2528	−54.1	× 74 / 232	−17.3
6	37,633	2592.6	− 2552	40.6	× 33 / 232	5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						16

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,407	2500.7	− 2436	64.7	× 59 / 255	15
4	37,408	2516.0	− 2485	31	× 65 / 255	7.9
5	37,409	2541.0	− 2528	13	× 64 / 255	3.3
6	37,410	2528.5	− 2552	−23.5	× 67 / 255	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						20

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −6, −5, −10, −6, 7, −16, 23, 16, 20 → 2.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 39 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 12
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12 × 2.66 = 31.9. Upper limit 34.5, lower limit −29.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.