Golden Springs Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,696	2433.2	− 2436	−2.8	× 55 / 245	−0.6
4	36,697	2468.7	− 2485	−16.3	× 64 / 245	−4.3
5	36,700	2480.5	− 2528	−47.5	× 64 / 245	−12.4
6	36,701	2510.1	− 2552	−41.9	× 62 / 245	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,180	2455.2	− 2436	19.2	× 55 / 237	4.5
4	34,182	2483.1	− 2485	−1.9	× 56 / 237	−0.4
5	34,185	2485.6	− 2528	−42.4	× 63 / 237	−11.3
6	34,186	2519.2	− 2552	−32.8	× 63 / 237	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,793	2444.1	− 2436	8.1	× 54 / 238	1.8
4	34,795	2468.6	− 2485	−16.4	× 60 / 238	−4.1
5	34,797	2510.5	− 2528	−17.5	× 63 / 238	−4.6
6	34,798	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 61 / 238	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,803	2417.1	− 2436	−18.9	× 44 / 201	−4.1
4	34,805	2476.3	− 2485	−8.7	× 52 / 201	−2.3
5	34,807	2524.4	− 2528	−3.6	× 49 / 201	−0.9
6	34,809	2556.9	− 2552	4.9	× 56 / 201	1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,978	2433.6	− 2436	−2.4	× 44 / 186	−0.6
4	34,979	2484.1	− 2485	−0.9	× 38 / 186	−0.2
5	34,980	2513.2	− 2528	−14.8	× 51 / 186	−4.1
6	34,981	2566.6	− 2552	14.6	× 53 / 186	4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,875	2412.4	− 2436	−23.6	× 41 / 171	−5.7
4	34,876	2446.1	− 2485	−38.9	× 39 / 171	−8.9
5	34,877	2462.0	− 2528	−66	× 42 / 171	−16.2
6	34,878	2513.6	− 2552	−38.4	× 49 / 171	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,924	2433.6	− 2436	−2.4	× 68 / 253	−0.6
4	34,925	2444.2	− 2485	−40.8	× 61 / 253	−9.8
5	34,926	2501.1	− 2528	−26.9	× 64 / 253	−6.8
6	34,927	2484.1	− 2552	−67.9	× 60 / 253	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,782	2434.0	− 2436	−2	× 64 / 250	−0.5
4	34,783	2486.9	− 2485	1.9	× 63 / 250	0.5
5	34,784	2474.6	− 2528	−53.4	× 60 / 250	−12.8
6	34,785	2519.0	− 2552	−33	× 63 / 250	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,629	2407.9	− 2436	−28.1	× 53 / 252	−5.9
4	34,630	2475.4	− 2485	−9.6	× 70 / 252	−2.7
5	34,631	2475.5	− 2528	−52.5	× 66 / 252	−13.8
6	34,632	2513.4	− 2552	−38.6	× 63 / 252	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −28, −16, −11, −6, −1, −42, −33, −21, −32 → −21.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 41 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 12.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.5 × 2.66 = 33.3. Upper limit 12.2, lower limit −54.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.