Cortez Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	36,581	2414.4	− 2436	−21.6	× 88 / 528	−3.6
4	36,583	2463.4	− 2485	−21.6	× 87 / 528	−3.6
5	36,585	2467.7	− 2528	−60.3	× 89 / 528	−10.2
6	36,587	2497.2	− 2552	−54.8	× 87 / 528	−9
7	36,589	2525.1	− 2567	−41.9	× 88 / 528	−7
8	36,591	2550.6	− 2586	−35.4	× 89 / 528	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,081	2429.1	− 2436	−6.9	× 74 / 514	−1
4	34,083	2471.5	− 2485	−13.5	× 93 / 514	−2.4
5	34,084	2486.3	− 2528	−41.7	× 88 / 514	−7.1
6	34,087	2493.8	− 2552	−58.2	× 91 / 514	−10.3
7	34,088	2543.0	− 2567	−24	× 82 / 514	−3.8
8	34,091	2542.5	− 2586	−43.5	× 86 / 514	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,677	2430.9	− 2436	−5.1	× 75 / 511	−0.7
4	34,679	2498.3	− 2485	13.3	× 77 / 511	2
5	34,681	2480.8	− 2528	−47.2	× 92 / 511	−8.5
6	34,682	2515.2	− 2552	−36.8	× 87 / 511	−6.3
7	34,684	2524.3	− 2567	−42.7	× 99 / 511	−8.3
8	34,686	2545.0	− 2586	−41	× 81 / 511	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,680	2438.8	− 2436	2.8	× 54 / 507	0.3
4	34,682	2470.7	− 2485	−14.3	× 91 / 507	−2.6
5	34,684	2509.3	− 2528	−18.7	× 80 / 507	−3
6	34,686	2513.6	− 2552	−38.4	× 95 / 507	−7.2
7	34,688	2505.6	− 2567	−61.4	× 95 / 507	−11.5
8	34,690	2510.8	− 2586	−75.2	× 92 / 507	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,854	2453.5	− 2436	17.5	× 56 / 471	2.1
4	34,855	2497.7	− 2485	12.7	× 64 / 471	1.7
5	34,856	2472.8	− 2528	−55.2	× 91 / 471	−10.7
6	34,857	2525.5	− 2552	−26.5	× 77 / 471	−4.3
7	34,858	2518.5	− 2567	−48.5	× 93 / 471	−9.6
8	34,859	2514.3	− 2586	−71.7	× 90 / 471	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,755	2415.7	− 2436	−20.3	× 72 / 428	−3.4
4	34,756	2480.0	− 2485	−5	× 71 / 428	−0.8
5	34,757	2505.4	− 2528	−22.6	× 71 / 428	−3.7
6	34,758	2506.0	− 2552	−46	× 64 / 428	−6.9
7	34,759	2513.8	− 2567	−53.2	× 63 / 428	−7.8
8	34,760	2489.7	− 2586	−96.3	× 87 / 428	−19.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,818	2417.1	− 2436	−18.9	× 55 / 395	−2.6
4	34,819	2469.5	− 2485	−15.5	× 72 / 395	−2.8
5	34,820	2500.7	− 2528	−27.3	× 68 / 395	−4.7
6	34,821	2502.9	− 2552	−49.1	× 69 / 395	−8.6
7	34,822	2493.3	− 2567	−73.7	× 75 / 395	−14
8	34,823	2489.6	− 2586	−96.4	× 56 / 395	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,672	2407.9	− 2436	−28.1	× 74 / 444	−4.7
4	34,673	2453.4	− 2485	−31.6	× 57 / 444	−4.1
5	34,674	2473.8	− 2528	−54.2	× 82 / 444	−10
6	34,675	2518.7	− 2552	−33.3	× 69 / 444	−5.2
7	34,676	2507.1	− 2567	−59.9	× 87 / 444	−11.7
8	34,677	2531.3	− 2586	−54.7	× 75 / 444	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,519	2410.6	− 2436	−25.4	× 49 / 425	−2.9
4	34,520	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 69 / 425	−8.6
5	34,521	2471.5	− 2528	−56.5	× 55 / 425	−7.3
6	34,522	2478.1	− 2552	−73.9	× 80 / 425	−13.9
7	34,523	2556.7	− 2567	−10.3	× 87 / 425	−2.1
8	34,524	2526.1	− 2586	−59.9	× 85 / 425	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −39, −32, −28, −38, −34, −42, −46, −45, −47 → −39
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5 × 2.66 = 13.3. Upper limit −25.7, lower limit −52.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.