Manzanita Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	35,593	2350.1	− 2436	−85.9	× 95 / 456	−17.9
4	35,595	2382.3	− 2485	−102.7	× 105 / 456	−23.6
5	35,597	2402.3	− 2528	−125.7	× 121 / 456	−33.4
6	35,599	2454.3	− 2552	−97.7	× 135 / 456	−28.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,249	2370.3	− 2436	−65.7	× 110 / 456	−15.8
4	33,251	2384.6	− 2485	−100.4	× 111 / 456	−24.4
5	33,252	2421.3	− 2528	−106.7	× 108 / 456	−25.3
6	33,255	2433.2	− 2552	−118.8	× 127 / 456	−33.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,834	2377.0	− 2436	−59	× 93 / 424	−12.9
4	33,836	2385.3	− 2485	−99.7	× 117 / 424	−27.5
5	33,838	2396.2	− 2528	−131.8	× 114 / 424	−35.4
6	33,839	2419.8	− 2552	−132.2	× 100 / 424	−31.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,863	2356.5	− 2436	−79.5	× 114 / 348	−26
4	33,865	2381.0	− 2485	−104	× 107 / 348	−32
5	33,867	2418.3	− 2528	−109.7	× 127 / 348	−40
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,045	2370.4	− 2436	−65.6	× 108 / 322	−22
4	34,046	2401.6	− 2485	−83.4	× 109 / 322	−28.2
5	34,047	2411.9	− 2528	−116.1	× 105 / 322	−37.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,964	2373.2	− 2436	−62.8	× 96 / 321	−18.8
4	33,965	2375.8	− 2485	−109.2	× 124 / 321	−42.2
5	33,966	2401.4	− 2528	−126.6	× 101 / 321	−39.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,015	2348.0	− 2436	−88	× 116 / 357	−28.6
4	34,016	2400.2	− 2485	−84.8	× 103 / 357	−24.5
5	34,017	2392.0	− 2528	−136	× 138 / 357	−52.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,871	2335.2	− 2436	−100.8	× 111 / 322	−34.7
4	33,872	2392.0	− 2485	−93	× 104 / 322	−30
5	33,873	2425.4	− 2528	−102.6	× 107 / 322	−34.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,733	2345.7	− 2436	−90.3	× 109 / 357	−27.6
4	33,734	2384.0	− 2485	−101	× 103 / 357	−29.1
5	33,735	2425.8	− 2528	−102.2	× 92 / 357	−26.3
6	33,736	2440.1	− 2552	−111.9	× 53 / 357	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −104, −99, −107, −98, −88, −101, −106, −99, −100 → −100.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 7.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.3 × 2.66 = 19.4. Upper limit −80.8, lower limit −119.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.