John Dolland Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	35,366	2386.7	− 2436	−49.3	× 99 / 294	−16.6
4	35,367	2429.3	− 2485	−55.7	× 106 / 294	−20.1
5	35,369	2479.7	− 2528	−48.3	× 89 / 294	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,034	2405.6	− 2436	−30.4	× 100 / 303	−10
4	33,036	2455.6	− 2485	−29.4	× 97 / 303	−9.4
5	33,037	2471.9	− 2528	−56.1	× 106 / 303	−19.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,609	2415.3	− 2436	−20.7	× 79 / 255	−6.4
4	33,612	2423.9	− 2485	−61.1	× 87 / 255	−20.8
5	33,614	2473.5	− 2528	−54.5	× 89 / 255	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,635	2433.8	− 2436	−2.2	× 72 / 225	−0.7
4	33,637	2463.7	− 2485	−21.3	× 74 / 225	−7
5	33,639	2465.2	− 2528	−62.8	× 79 / 225	−22
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,811	2471.4	− 2436	35.4	× 88 / 244	12.8
4	33,812	2473.6	− 2485	−11.4	× 81 / 244	−3.8
5	33,813	2516.7	− 2528	−11.3	× 75 / 244	−3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,730	2446.2	− 2436	10.2	× 79 / 256	3.1
4	33,731	2442.1	− 2485	−42.9	× 78 / 256	−13.1
5	33,732	2442.7	− 2528	−85.3	× 99 / 256	−33
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,779	2465.0	− 2436	29	× 102 / 263	11.2
4	33,780	2462.6	− 2485	−22.4	× 81 / 263	−6.9
5	33,781	2493.7	− 2528	−34.3	× 80 / 263	−10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,635	2460.5	− 2436	24.5	× 89 / 267	8.2
4	33,636	2461.3	− 2485	−23.7	× 98 / 267	−8.7
5	33,637	2479.6	− 2528	−48.4	× 80 / 267	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,496	2472.3	− 2436	36.3	× 91 / 276	12
4	33,497	2477.5	− 2485	−7.5	× 88 / 276	−2.4
5	33,498	2491.1	− 2528	−36.9	× 97 / 276	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −51, −39, −46, −30, 6, −43, −6, −15, −3 → −25.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 36 · 2019→2022: 49 · 2022→2023: 37 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 22.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 22.3 × 2.66 = 59.3. Upper limit 34.1, lower limit −84.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.