Willard F. Payne Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	35,083	2375.6	− 2436	−60.4	× 77 / 282	−16.5
4	35,085	2405.3	− 2485	−79.7	× 70 / 282	−19.8
5	35,087	2405.3	− 2528	−122.7	× 67 / 282	−29.2
6	35,089	2477.6	− 2552	−74.4	× 68 / 282	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,762	2376.3	− 2436	−59.7	× 72 / 287	−15
4	32,764	2408.0	− 2485	−77	× 79 / 287	−21.2
5	32,766	2418.6	− 2528	−109.4	× 73 / 287	−27.8
6	32,768	2419.2	− 2552	−132.8	× 63 / 287	−29.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,340	2384.9	− 2436	−51.1	× 91 / 308	−15.1
4	33,341	2386.6	− 2485	−98.4	× 75 / 308	−24
5	33,343	2438.0	− 2528	−90	× 73 / 308	−21.3
6	33,346	2461.2	− 2552	−90.8	× 69 / 308	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,359	2375.8	− 2436	−60.2	× 50 / 274	−11
4	33,362	2386.4	− 2485	−98.6	× 91 / 274	−32.7
5	33,363	2427.4	− 2528	−100.6	× 68 / 274	−25
6	33,366	2467.6	− 2552	−84.4	× 65 / 274	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−89

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,532	2397.2	− 2436	−38.8	× 70 / 283	−9.6
4	33,533	2395.1	− 2485	−89.9	× 55 / 283	−17.5
5	33,534	2443.3	− 2528	−84.7	× 90 / 283	−26.9
6	33,535	2478.3	− 2552	−73.7	× 68 / 283	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,467	2370.0	− 2436	−66	× 92 / 398	−15.3
4	33,468	2357.6	− 2485	−127.4	× 92 / 398	−29.4
5	33,469	2403.8	− 2528	−124.2	× 104 / 398	−32.5
6	33,470	2443.8	− 2552	−108.2	× 110 / 398	−29.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,518	2387.1	− 2436	−48.9	× 65 / 345	−9.2
4	33,519	2375.6	− 2485	−109.4	× 94 / 345	−29.8
5	33,520	2395.4	− 2528	−132.6	× 86 / 345	−33.1
6	33,521	2426.9	− 2552	−125.1	× 100 / 345	−36.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,378	2390.5	− 2436	−45.5	× 72 / 318	−10.3
4	33,379	2375.1	− 2485	−109.9	× 67 / 318	−23.2
5	33,380	2410.7	− 2528	−117.3	× 89 / 318	−32.8
6	33,381	2416.5	− 2552	−135.5	× 90 / 318	−38.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,239	2358.4	− 2436	−77.6	× 73 / 316	−17.9
4	33,240	2387.8	− 2485	−97.2	× 80 / 316	−24.6
5	33,241	2399.0	− 2528	−129	× 76 / 316	−31
6	33,242	2439.5	− 2552	−112.5	× 87 / 316	−31
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −83, −93, −81, −89, −72, −107, −108, −105, −105 → −93.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 17 · 2019→2022: 35 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit −65, lower limit −122.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.