Vinedale Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,567	2437.1	− 2436	1.1	× 32 / 104	0.3
4	32,569	2452.6	− 2485	−32.4	× 37 / 104	−11.5
5	32,571	2458.7	− 2528	−69.3	× 35 / 104	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,780	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 31 / 90	1.3
4	30,782	2476.1	− 2485	−8.9	× 25 / 90	−2.5
5	30,783	2491.1	− 2528	−36.9	× 34 / 90	−13.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,344	2415.7	− 2436	−20.3	× 30 / 81	−7.5
4	31,347	2458.2	− 2485	−26.8	× 28 / 81	−9.3
5	31,349	2497.1	− 2528	−30.9	× 23 / 81	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,391	2397.2	− 2436	−38.8	× 22 / 81	−10.5
4	31,393	2447.4	− 2485	−37.6	× 29 / 81	−13.5
5	31,395	2463.4	− 2528	−64.6	× 30 / 81	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,568	2424.5	− 2436	−11.5	× 22 / 98	−2.6
4	31,569	2459.4	− 2485	−25.6	× 22 / 98	−5.7
5	31,570	2469.9	− 2528	−58.1	× 28 / 98	−16.6
6	31,571	2474.9	− 2552	−77.1	× 26 / 98	−20.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,587	2389.0	− 2436	−47	× 21 / 142	−7
4	31,588	2443.2	− 2485	−41.8	× 20 / 142	−5.9
5	31,589	2424.4	− 2528	−103.6	× 20 / 142	−14.6
6	31,590	2402.7	− 2552	−149.3	× 28 / 142	−29.4
7	31,591	2446.1	− 2567	−120.9	× 22 / 142	−18.7
8	31,592	2449.3	− 2586	−136.7	× 31 / 142	−29.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,644	2359.5	− 2436	−76.5	× 16 / 136	−9
4	31,645	2395.0	− 2485	−90	× 24 / 136	−15.9
5	31,646	2429.6	− 2528	−98.4	× 22 / 136	−15.9
6	31,647	2417.7	− 2552	−134.3	× 21 / 136	−20.7
7	31,648	2415.9	− 2567	−151.1	× 26 / 136	−28.9
8	31,649	2441.0	− 2586	−145	× 27 / 136	−28.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,510	2353.8	− 2436	−82.2	× 17 / 137	−10.2
4	31,511	2360.4	− 2485	−124.6	× 17 / 137	−15.5
5	31,512	2430.8	− 2528	−97.2	× 25 / 137	−17.7
6	31,513	2428.2	− 2552	−123.8	× 27 / 137	−24.4
7	31,514	2461.9	− 2567	−105.1	× 25 / 137	−19.2
8	31,515	2428.9	− 2586	−157.1	× 26 / 137	−29.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,369	2385.7	− 2436	−50.3	× 18 / 134	−6.8
4	31,370	2354.4	− 2485	−130.6	× 16 / 134	−15.6
5	31,371	2462.8	− 2528	−65.2	× 13 / 134	−6.3
6	31,372	2425.2	− 2552	−126.8	× 25 / 134	−23.7
7	31,373	2478.7	− 2567	−88.3	× 36 / 134	−23.7
8	31,374	2445.8	− 2586	−140.2	× 26 / 134	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −35, −15, −26, −48, −45, −105, −119, −117, −103 → −68.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 20 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 22 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 60 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 14 → average 18.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 18.3 × 2.66 = 48.7. Upper limit −19.4, lower limit −116.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.