Vernon City Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,532	2423.8	− 2436	−12.2	× 38 / 145	−3.2
4	32,534	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 37 / 145	−17.7
5	32,536	2451.6	− 2528	−76.4	× 49 / 145	−25.8
6	32,538	2475.1	− 2552	−76.9	× 21 / 145	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,744	2386.0	− 2436	−50	× 23 / 140	−8.2
4	30,746	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 35 / 140	−8.9
5	30,748	2453.1	− 2528	−74.9	× 39 / 140	−20.9
6	30,749	2492.3	− 2552	−59.7	× 43 / 140	−18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,308	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 48 / 142	−3.3
4	31,310	2421.1	− 2485	−63.9	× 22 / 142	−9.9
5	31,312	2489.2	− 2528	−38.8	× 40 / 142	−10.9
6	31,315	2465.2	− 2552	−86.8	× 32 / 142	−19.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,355	2419.1	− 2436	−16.9	× 28 / 119	−4
4	31,358	2460.0	− 2485	−25	× 42 / 119	−8.8
5	31,360	2428.7	− 2528	−99.3	× 21 / 119	−17.5
6	31,361	2516.3	− 2552	−35.7	× 28 / 119	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,532	2457.7	− 2436	21.7	× 28 / 96	6.3
4	31,533	2424.1	− 2485	−60.9	× 27 / 96	−17.1
5	31,534	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 41 / 96	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,549	2513.9	− 2436	77.9	× 17 / 100	13.2
4	31,550	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 24 / 100	−2.4
5	31,551	2465.4	− 2528	−62.6	× 37 / 100	−23.2
6	31,552	2474.1	− 2552	−77.9	× 22 / 100	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,606	2471.7	− 2436	35.7	× 25 / 88	10.1
4	31,607	2480.5	− 2485	−4.5	× 18 / 88	−0.9
5	31,608	2510.8	− 2528	−17.2	× 20 / 88	−3.9
6	31,609	2471.5	− 2552	−80.5	× 25 / 88	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,472	2476.9	− 2436	40.9	× 17 / 69	10.1
4	31,473	2482.5	− 2485	−2.5	× 24 / 69	−0.9
5	31,474	2545.2	− 2528	17.2	× 15 / 69	3.7
6	31,475	2526.5	− 2552	−25.5	× 13 / 69	−4.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,331	2499.4	− 2436	63.4	× 20 / 77	16.5
4	31,332	2471.6	− 2485	−13.4	× 17 / 77	−3
5	31,333	2513.0	− 2528	−15	× 26 / 77	−5.1
6	31,334	2584.6	− 2552	32.6	× 14 / 77	5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −58, −56, −44, −39, −27, −29, −18, 8, 14 → −27.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 26 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 9.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.5 × 2.66 = 25.3. Upper limit −2.4, lower limit −53.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.