Van Deene Avenue Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,458	2401.8	− 2436	−34.2	× 60 / 218	−9.4
4	32,459	2452.0	− 2485	−33	× 68 / 218	−10.3
5	32,462	2489.9	− 2528	−38.1	× 56 / 218	−9.8
6	32,463	2507.0	− 2552	−45	× 34 / 218	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,670	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 45 / 202	−0.5
4	30,671	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 58 / 202	−7.4
5	30,674	2461.6	− 2528	−66.4	× 56 / 202	−18.4
6	30,676	2520.3	− 2552	−31.7	× 43 / 202	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,234	2386.8	− 2436	−49.2	× 56 / 181	−15.2
4	31,237	2494.6	− 2485	9.6	× 39 / 181	2.1
5	31,238	2446.8	− 2528	−81.2	× 52 / 181	−23.3
6	31,241	2518.7	− 2552	−33.3	× 34 / 181	−6.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,282	2438.9	− 2436	2.9	× 35 / 162	0.6
4	31,284	2460.6	− 2485	−24.4	× 51 / 162	−7.7
5	31,286	2538.7	− 2528	10.7	× 40 / 162	2.6
6	31,288	2518.2	− 2552	−33.8	× 36 / 162	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,458	2443.2	− 2436	7.2	× 39 / 152	1.8
4	31,459	2495.3	− 2485	10.3	× 37 / 152	2.5
5	31,460	2466.4	− 2528	−61.6	× 49 / 152	−19.9
6	31,461	2562.9	− 2552	10.9	× 27 / 152	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,475	2442.8	− 2436	6.8	× 52 / 161	2.2
4	31,476	2485.5	− 2485	0.5	× 44 / 161	0.1
5	31,477	2479.8	− 2528	−48.2	× 37 / 161	−11.1
6	31,478	2475.4	− 2552	−76.6	× 28 / 161	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,532	2439.2	− 2436	3.2	× 46 / 176	0.8
4	31,533	2507.9	− 2485	22.9	× 57 / 176	7.4
5	31,534	2455.5	− 2528	−72.5	× 44 / 176	−18.1
6	31,535	2535.1	− 2552	−16.9	× 29 / 176	−2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,398	2405.9	− 2436	−30.1	× 47 / 170	−8.3
4	31,399	2447.0	− 2485	−38	× 44 / 170	−9.8
5	31,400	2519.3	− 2528	−8.7	× 55 / 170	−2.8
6	31,401	2453.4	− 2552	−98.6	× 24 / 170	−13.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,257	2458.1	− 2436	22.1	× 40 / 170	5.2
4	31,258	2474.9	− 2485	−10.1	× 41 / 170	−2.4
5	31,259	2522.1	− 2528	−5.9	× 43 / 170	−1.5
6	31,260	2522.5	− 2552	−29.5	× 46 / 170	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −37, −33, −43, −12, −14, −22, −13, −35, −7 → −24
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 31 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 22 · 2024→2025: 28 → average 14.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.3 × 2.66 = 38. Upper limit 14, lower limit −62.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.