Sunrise Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	33,524	2402.6	− 2436	−33.4	× 58 / 230	−8.4
4	33,526	2443.1	− 2485	−41.9	× 59 / 230	−10.7
5	33,527	2437.1	− 2528	−90.9	× 59 / 230	−23.3
6	33,530	2436.5	− 2552	−115.5	× 54 / 230	−27.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,711	2393.1	− 2436	−42.9	× 70 / 238	−12.6
4	31,713	2421.2	− 2485	−63.8	× 64 / 238	−17.2
5	31,716	2454.3	− 2528	−73.7	× 48 / 238	−14.9
6	31,717	2447.8	− 2552	−104.2	× 56 / 238	−24.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,264	2420.3	− 2436	−15.7	× 73 / 243	−4.7
4	32,267	2434.5	− 2485	−50.5	× 70 / 243	−14.5
5	32,269	2451.8	− 2528	−76.2	× 63 / 243	−19.8
6	32,271	2479.1	− 2552	−72.9	× 37 / 243	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,292	2397.4	− 2436	−38.6	× 39 / 221	−6.8
4	32,294	2439.8	− 2485	−45.2	× 69 / 221	−14.1
5	32,296	2472.4	− 2528	−55.6	× 67 / 221	−16.9
6	32,298	2460.1	− 2552	−91.9	× 46 / 221	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,474	2416.0	− 2436	−20	× 35 / 187	−3.7
4	32,475	2463.0	− 2485	−22	× 35 / 187	−4.1
5	32,476	2488.8	− 2528	−39.2	× 53 / 187	−11.1
6	32,477	2488.2	− 2552	−63.8	× 64 / 187	−21.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,503	2392.2	− 2436	−43.8	× 51 / 162	−13.8
4	32,504	2429.3	− 2485	−55.7	× 41 / 162	−14.1
5	32,505	2430.4	− 2528	−97.6	× 47 / 162	−28.3
6	32,506	2441.1	− 2552	−110.9	× 23 / 162	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,560	2398.4	− 2436	−37.6	× 47 / 191	−9.3
4	32,561	2457.6	− 2485	−27.4	× 52 / 191	−7.5
5	32,562	2481.3	− 2528	−46.7	× 45 / 191	−11
6	32,563	2434.9	− 2552	−117.1	× 47 / 191	−28.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,426	2408.7	− 2436	−27.3	× 38 / 183	−5.7
4	32,427	2422.3	− 2485	−62.7	× 48 / 183	−16.4
5	32,428	2480.5	− 2528	−47.5	× 53 / 183	−13.8
6	32,429	2496.6	− 2552	−55.4	× 44 / 183	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,285	2443.1	− 2436	7.1	× 58 / 202	2
4	32,286	2417.5	− 2485	−67.5	× 44 / 202	−14.7
5	32,287	2482.6	− 2528	−45.4	× 48 / 202	−10.8
6	32,288	2502.0	− 2552	−50	× 52 / 202	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −70, −69, −50, −57, −41, −72, −57, −49, −36 → −55.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 16 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 13 → average 13.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.8 × 2.66 = 36.7. Upper limit −19, lower limit −92.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.