Stonehurst Avenue Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,186	2429.0	− 2436	−7	× 50 / 149	−2.3
4	32,187	2446.9	− 2485	−38.1	× 51 / 149	−13
5	32,190	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 48 / 149	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,400	2456.0	− 2436	20	× 43 / 139	6.2
4	30,401	2470.1	− 2485	−14.9	× 47 / 139	−5
5	30,403	2484.4	− 2528	−43.6	× 49 / 139	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,964	2446.1	− 2436	10.1	× 40 / 123	3.3
4	30,967	2450.7	− 2485	−34.3	× 39 / 123	−10.9
5	30,968	2471.6	− 2528	−56.4	× 44 / 123	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,011	2435.3	− 2436	−0.7	× 42 / 122	−0.2
4	31,013	2460.4	− 2485	−24.6	× 43 / 122	−8.7
5	31,015	2502.0	− 2528	−26	× 37 / 122	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,187	2444.9	− 2436	8.9	× 40 / 124	2.9
4	31,188	2445.3	− 2485	−39.7	× 44 / 124	−14.1
5	31,189	2492.4	− 2528	−35.6	× 40 / 124	−11.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,204	2463.7	− 2436	27.7	× 39 / 128	8.4
4	31,205	2501.0	− 2485	16	× 42 / 128	5.3
5	31,206	2492.0	− 2528	−36	× 47 / 128	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,261	2453.1	− 2436	17.1	× 40 / 120	5.7
4	31,262	2490.6	− 2485	5.6	× 40 / 120	1.9
5	31,263	2559.9	− 2528	31.9	× 40 / 120	10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						18

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,127	2444.0	− 2436	8	× 45 / 130	2.8
4	31,128	2465.9	− 2485	−19.1	× 42 / 130	−6.2
5	31,129	2506.7	− 2528	−21.3	× 43 / 130	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,986	2460.2	− 2436	24.2	× 32 / 120	6.5
4	30,987	2479.9	− 2485	−5.1	× 47 / 120	−2
5	30,988	2521.1	− 2528	−6.9	× 41 / 120	−2.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −35, −14, −28, −17, −23, 0, 18, −10, 2 → −11.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 28 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 16.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.6 × 2.66 = 44.2. Upper limit 32.3, lower limit −56.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.