Sierra Vista Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,076	2390.5	− 2436	−45.5	× 36 / 130	−12.6
4	32,078	2442.0	− 2485	−43	× 44 / 130	−14.6
5	32,080	2435.2	− 2528	−92.8	× 26 / 130	−18.6
6	32,082	2478.5	− 2552	−73.5	× 24 / 130	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,289	2437.6	− 2436	1.6	× 45 / 151	0.5
4	30,292	2429.1	− 2485	−55.9	× 40 / 151	−14.8
5	30,294	2445.7	− 2528	−82.3	× 40 / 151	−21.8
6	30,296	2501.1	− 2552	−50.9	× 26 / 151	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,855	2464.0	− 2436	28	× 35 / 155	6.3
4	30,856	2445.8	− 2485	−39.2	× 46 / 155	−11.6
5	30,858	2464.8	− 2528	−63.2	× 38 / 155	−15.5
6	30,861	2536.7	− 2552	−15.3	× 36 / 155	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,901	2449.0	− 2436	13	× 24 / 131	2.4
4	30,903	2479.0	− 2485	−6	× 35 / 131	−1.6
5	30,905	2477.4	− 2528	−50.6	× 40 / 131	−15.5
6	30,907	2508.6	− 2552	−43.4	× 32 / 131	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,078	2375.8	− 2436	−60.2	× 23 / 116	−11.9
4	31,079	2482.9	− 2485	−2.1	× 24 / 116	−0.4
5	31,080	2496.4	− 2528	−31.6	× 36 / 116	−9.8
6	31,081	2488.8	− 2552	−63.2	× 33 / 116	−18
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,095	2439.1	− 2436	3.1	× 23 / 91	0.8
4	31,096	2467.7	− 2485	−17.3	× 27 / 91	−5.1
5	31,097	2472.4	− 2528	−55.6	× 25 / 91	−15.3
6	31,098	2455.3	− 2552	−96.7	× 16 / 91	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,152	2452.4	− 2436	16.4	× 20 / 96	3.4
4	31,153	2476.5	− 2485	−8.5	× 24 / 96	−2.1
5	31,154	2508.2	− 2528	−19.8	× 26 / 96	−5.4
6	31,155	2529.7	− 2552	−22.3	× 26 / 96	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	31,018	2471.1	− 2436	35.1	× 28 / 89	11
4	31,019	2506.4	− 2485	21.4	× 20 / 89	4.8
5	31,020	2516.6	− 2528	−11.4	× 22 / 89	−2.8
6	31,021	2568.9	− 2552	16.9	× 19 / 89	3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,877	2472.4	− 2436	36.4	× 21 / 95	8
4	30,878	2508.1	− 2485	23.1	× 30 / 95	7.3
5	30,879	2509.8	− 2528	−18.2	× 23 / 95	−4.4
6	30,880	2571.1	− 2552	19.1	× 21 / 95	4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −59, −45, −24, −25, −40, −37, −10, 17, 15 → −23.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 21 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 27 · 2023→2024: 27 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 13.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.8 × 2.66 = 36.7. Upper limit 13.6, lower limit −59.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.