Breed Street Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,524	2375.3	− 2436	−60.7	× 66 / 234	−17.1
4	29,526	2422.9	− 2485	−62.1	× 69 / 234	−18.3
5	29,528	2450.7	− 2528	−77.3	× 61 / 234	−20.2
6	29,530	2466.6	− 2552	−85.4	× 38 / 234	−13.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	27,745	2373.9	− 2436	−62.1	× 59 / 236	−15.5
4	27,748	2428.9	− 2485	−56.1	× 66 / 236	−15.7
5	27,749	2476.2	− 2528	−51.8	× 65 / 236	−14.3
6	27,752	2467.0	− 2552	−85	× 46 / 236	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,316	2398.9	− 2436	−37.1	× 48 / 222	−8
4	28,318	2424.7	− 2485	−60.3	× 61 / 222	−16.6
5	28,320	2430.5	− 2528	−97.5	× 62 / 222	−27.2
6	28,323	2493.1	− 2552	−58.9	× 51 / 222	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,367	2414.1	− 2436	−21.9	× 62 / 217	−6.3
4	28,370	2429.6	− 2485	−55.4	× 47 / 217	−12
5	28,371	2484.3	− 2528	−43.7	× 57 / 217	−11.5
6	28,374	2451.2	− 2552	−100.8	× 51 / 217	−23.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,548	2385.3	− 2436	−50.7	× 40 / 185	−11
4	28,549	2469.2	− 2485	−15.8	× 58 / 185	−5
5	28,550	2439.7	− 2528	−88.3	× 45 / 185	−21.5
6	28,551	2464.6	− 2552	−87.4	× 42 / 185	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,579	2361.0	− 2436	−75	× 36 / 158	−17.1
4	28,580	2421.2	− 2485	−63.8	× 37 / 158	−14.9
5	28,581	2409.9	− 2528	−118.1	× 51 / 158	−38.1
6	28,582	2472.7	− 2552	−79.3	× 34 / 158	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−87

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,640	2394.2	− 2436	−41.8	× 37 / 153	−10.1
4	28,641	2403.3	− 2485	−81.7	× 38 / 153	−20.3
5	28,642	2399.5	− 2528	−128.5	× 40 / 153	−33.6
6	28,643	2456.0	− 2552	−96	× 38 / 153	−23.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,506	2398.4	− 2436	−37.6	× 30 / 139	−8.1
4	28,507	2452.3	− 2485	−32.7	× 38 / 139	−8.9
5	28,508	2434.9	− 2528	−93.1	× 39 / 139	−26.1
6	28,509	2448.5	− 2552	−103.5	× 32 / 139	−23.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,369	2409.6	− 2436	−26.4	× 33 / 132	−6.6
4	28,370	2450.8	− 2485	−34.2	× 31 / 132	−8
5	28,371	2485.1	− 2528	−42.9	× 41 / 132	−13.3
6	28,372	2467.7	− 2552	−84.3	× 27 / 132	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −69, −62, −65, −53, −57, −87, −88, −67, −45 → −65.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 30 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 21 · 2024→2025: 22 → average 12.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.5 × 2.66 = 33.3. Upper limit −32.6, lower limit −99.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.