Hillcrest Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,704	2396.1	− 2436	−39.9	× 61 / 261	−9.3
4	23,705	2464.3	− 2485	−20.7	× 54 / 261	−4.3
5	23,708	2510.4	− 2528	−17.6	× 77 / 261	−5.2
6	23,709	2552.3	− 2552	0.3	× 69 / 261	0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,212	2432.9	− 2436	−3.1	× 43 / 217	−0.6
4	22,213	2463.7	− 2485	−21.3	× 53 / 217	−5.2
5	22,216	2523.2	− 2528	−4.8	× 51 / 217	−1.1
6	22,217	2563.3	− 2552	11.3	× 70 / 217	3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,631	2411.3	− 2436	−24.7	× 61 / 222	−6.8
4	22,632	2482.2	− 2485	−2.8	× 48 / 222	−0.6
5	22,635	2493.5	− 2528	−34.5	× 55 / 222	−8.5
6	22,637	2535.2	− 2552	−16.8	× 58 / 222	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,627	2448.2	− 2436	12.2	× 61 / 226	3.3
4	22,630	2473.4	− 2485	−11.6	× 61 / 226	−3.1
5	22,632	2504.9	− 2528	−23.1	× 48 / 226	−4.9
6	22,634	2516.0	− 2552	−36	× 56 / 226	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,810	2477.7	− 2436	41.7	× 45 / 213	8.8
4	22,811	2480.2	− 2485	−4.8	× 60 / 213	−1.4
5	22,812	2482.2	− 2528	−45.8	× 59 / 213	−12.7
6	22,813	2550.3	− 2552	−1.7	× 49 / 213	−0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,777	2491.8	− 2436	55.8	× 62 / 197	17.6
4	22,778	2469.9	− 2485	−15.1	× 51 / 197	−3.9
5	22,779	2536.4	− 2528	8.4	× 41 / 197	1.7
6	22,780	2542.4	− 2552	−9.6	× 43 / 197	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,752	2478.1	− 2436	42.1	× 58 / 226	10.8
4	22,753	2507.4	− 2485	22.4	× 63 / 226	6.2
5	22,754	2491.0	− 2528	−37	× 55 / 226	−9
6	22,755	2554.4	− 2552	2.4	× 50 / 226	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,612	2484.4	− 2436	48.4	× 68 / 247	13.3
4	22,613	2482.6	− 2485	−2.4	× 61 / 247	−0.6
5	22,614	2527.3	− 2528	−0.7	× 61 / 247	−0.2
6	22,615	2497.3	− 2552	−54.7	× 57 / 247	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,521	2483.6	− 2436	47.6	× 53 / 255	9.9
4	22,522	2477.9	− 2485	−7.1	× 71 / 255	−2
5	22,523	2474.0	− 2528	−54	× 69 / 255	−14.6
6	22,524	2554.0	− 2552	2	× 62 / 255	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −19, −3, −20, −14, −6, 13, 9, 0, −6 → −5.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 17 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 6 → average 10.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.6 × 2.66 = 28.2. Upper limit 23.1, lower limit −33.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.