Vista Del Valle Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,358	2416.5	− 2436	−19.5	× 47 / 172	−5.3
4	22,359	2457.4	− 2485	−27.6	× 31 / 172	−5
5	22,362	2498.7	− 2528	−29.3	× 43 / 172	−7.3
6	22,363	2520.7	− 2552	−31.3	× 51 / 172	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,071	2415.1	− 2436	−20.9	× 48 / 170	−5.9
4	21,072	2485.9	− 2485	0.9	× 49 / 170	0.3
5	21,074	2479.2	− 2528	−48.8	× 29 / 170	−8.3
6	21,076	2528.0	− 2552	−24	× 44 / 170	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,429	2441.2	− 2436	5.2	× 52 / 179	1.5
4	21,431	2483.6	− 2485	−1.4	× 47 / 179	−0.4
5	21,433	2527.1	− 2528	−0.9	× 46 / 179	−0.2
6	21,434	2503.5	− 2552	−48.5	× 34 / 179	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,415	2453.3	− 2436	17.3	× 40 / 166	4.2
4	21,418	2506.9	− 2485	21.9	× 45 / 166	5.9
5	21,419	2535.1	− 2528	7.1	× 41 / 166	1.8
6	21,422	2580.5	− 2552	28.5	× 40 / 166	6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,584	2433.8	− 2436	−2.2	× 52 / 187	−0.6
4	21,585	2492.7	− 2485	7.7	× 47 / 187	1.9
5	21,586	2507.5	− 2528	−20.5	× 47 / 187	−5.2
6	21,587	2564.8	− 2552	12.8	× 41 / 187	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,547	2410.3	− 2436	−25.7	× 47 / 195	−6.2
4	21,548	2444.3	− 2485	−40.7	× 51 / 195	−10.6
5	21,549	2502.8	− 2528	−25.2	× 54 / 195	−7
6	21,550	2524.4	− 2552	−27.6	× 43 / 195	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,520	2413.1	− 2436	−22.9	× 39 / 195	−4.6
4	21,521	2452.7	− 2485	−32.3	× 49 / 195	−8.1
5	21,522	2478.6	− 2528	−49.4	× 54 / 195	−13.7
6	21,523	2532.0	− 2552	−20	× 53 / 195	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,388	2421.7	− 2436	−14.3	× 42 / 173	−3.5
4	21,389	2460.1	− 2485	−24.9	× 33 / 173	−4.7
5	21,390	2476.0	− 2528	−52	× 43 / 173	−12.9
6	21,391	2524.0	− 2552	−28	× 55 / 173	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−30

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,297	2430.3	− 2436	−5.7	× 45 / 168	−1.5
4	21,298	2452.0	− 2485	−33	× 40 / 168	−7.9
5	21,299	2480.9	− 2528	−47.1	× 37 / 168	−10.4
6	21,300	2510.6	− 2552	−41.4	× 46 / 168	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −27, −20, −8, 19, −1, −30, −32, −30, −31 → −17.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 27 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2022: 29 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 12.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.5 × 2.66 = 33.3. Upper limit 15.5, lower limit −51.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.