Castaic Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,030	2435.6	− 2436	−0.4	× 108 / 278	−0.2
4	22,032	2455.7	− 2485	−29.3	× 78 / 278	−8.2
5	22,034	2491.2	− 2528	−36.8	× 92 / 278	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,786	2444.2	− 2436	8.2	× 63 / 333	1.6
4	20,789	2488.5	− 2485	3.5	× 101 / 333	1.1
5	20,790	2502.9	− 2528	−25.1	× 76 / 333	−5.7
6	20,792	2546.2	− 2552	−5.8	× 93 / 333	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,149	2427.6	− 2436	−8.4	× 46 / 291	−1.3
4	21,150	2473.4	− 2485	−11.6	× 69 / 291	−2.8
5	21,153	2508.3	− 2528	−19.7	× 100 / 291	−6.8
6	21,154	2523.4	− 2552	−28.6	× 76 / 291	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,130	2432.6	− 2436	−3.4	× 76 / 299	−0.9
4	21,132	2478.5	− 2485	−6.5	× 52 / 299	−1.1
5	21,134	2502.1	− 2528	−25.9	× 69 / 299	−6
6	21,136	2555.7	− 2552	3.7	× 102 / 299	1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,302	2437.3	− 2436	1.3	× 52 / 257	0.3
4	21,303	2478.7	− 2485	−6.3	× 77 / 257	−1.9
5	21,304	2517.4	− 2528	−10.6	× 51 / 257	−2.1
6	21,305	2538.3	− 2552	−13.7	× 77 / 257	−4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,279	2443.4	− 2436	7.4	× 47 / 228	1.5
4	21,280	2489.7	− 2485	4.7	× 51 / 228	1.1
5	21,281	2474.6	− 2528	−53.4	× 72 / 228	−16.9
6	21,282	2555.8	− 2552	3.8	× 58 / 228	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,246	2452.8	− 2436	16.8	× 65 / 240	4.6
4	21,247	2492.7	− 2485	7.7	× 54 / 240	1.7
5	21,248	2493.6	− 2528	−34.4	× 52 / 240	−7.5
6	21,249	2553.2	− 2552	1.2	× 69 / 240	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,114	2454.3	− 2436	18.3	× 41 / 216	3.5
4	21,115	2495.8	− 2485	10.8	× 66 / 216	3.3
5	21,116	2497.2	− 2528	−30.8	× 56 / 216	−8
6	21,117	2567.2	− 2552	15.2	× 53 / 216	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						3

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,033	2439.0	− 2436	3	× 50 / 216	0.7
4	21,034	2505.5	− 2485	20.5	× 45 / 216	4.3
5	21,035	2493.8	− 2528	−34.2	× 63 / 216	−10
6	21,036	2573.5	− 2552	21.5	× 58 / 216	5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −21, −5, −18, −7, −8, −13, −1, 3, 1 → −7.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8 × 2.66 = 21.3. Upper limit 13.6, lower limit −29.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.