Craig Williams Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,466	2381.8	− 2436	−54.2	× 140 / 492	−15.4
4	21,469	2427.0	− 2485	−58	× 114 / 492	−13.4
5	21,470	2460.6	− 2528	−67.4	× 109 / 492	−14.9
6	21,473	2479.2	− 2552	−72.8	× 129 / 492	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,346	2392.2	− 2436	−43.8	× 94 / 443	−9.3
4	20,349	2415.3	− 2485	−69.7	× 135 / 443	−21.2
5	20,350	2447.6	− 2528	−80.4	× 109 / 443	−19.8
6	20,352	2482.4	− 2552	−69.6	× 105 / 443	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,673	2384.7	− 2436	−51.3	× 94 / 423	−11.4
4	20,675	2419.3	− 2485	−65.7	× 91 / 423	−14.1
5	20,677	2449.8	− 2528	−78.2	× 136 / 423	−25.1
6	20,678	2457.5	− 2552	−94.5	× 102 / 423	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,668	2412.6	− 2436	−23.4	× 95 / 373	−6
4	20,670	2415.8	− 2485	−69.2	× 73 / 373	−13.5
5	20,672	2438.0	− 2528	−90	× 71 / 373	−17.1
6	20,674	2468.7	− 2552	−83.3	× 134 / 373	−29.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,848	2427.8	− 2436	−8.2	× 88 / 331	−2.2
4	20,849	2409.9	− 2485	−75.1	× 101 / 331	−22.9
5	20,850	2439.5	− 2528	−88.5	× 72 / 331	−19.3
6	20,851	2459.0	− 2552	−93	× 70 / 331	−19.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,859	2393.4	− 2436	−42.6	× 60 / 304	−8.4
4	20,860	2404.8	− 2485	−80.2	× 72 / 304	−19
5	20,861	2429.1	− 2528	−98.9	× 78 / 304	−25.4
6	20,862	2471.2	− 2552	−80.8	× 94 / 304	−25
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,818	2395.5	− 2436	−40.5	× 66 / 298	−9
4	20,819	2413.9	− 2485	−71.1	× 71 / 298	−16.9
5	20,820	2419.3	− 2528	−108.7	× 73 / 298	−26.6
6	20,821	2469.3	− 2552	−82.7	× 88 / 298	−24.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,696	2398.2	− 2436	−37.8	× 50 / 256	−7.4
4	20,697	2425.3	− 2485	−59.7	× 68 / 256	−15.9
5	20,698	2411.0	− 2528	−117	× 65 / 256	−29.7
6	20,699	2481.2	− 2552	−70.8	× 73 / 256	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,615	2424.5	− 2436	−11.5	× 49 / 240	−2.3
4	20,616	2436.6	− 2485	−48.4	× 63 / 240	−12.7
5	20,617	2455.9	− 2528	−72.1	× 64 / 240	−19.2
6	20,618	2494.4	− 2552	−57.6	× 64 / 240	−15.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −67, −73, −67, −64, −78, −77, −73, −50 → −68
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 23 → average 7.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.6 × 2.66 = 20.2. Upper limit −47.8, lower limit −88.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.