Don Julian Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,304	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 96 / 242	−6.9
4	21,307	2428.2	− 2485	−56.8	× 76 / 242	−17.8
5	21,308	2484.4	− 2528	−43.6	× 70 / 242	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,192	2435.2	− 2436	−0.8	× 57 / 224	−0.2
4	20,194	2477.2	− 2485	−7.8	× 91 / 224	−3.2
5	20,196	2485.0	− 2528	−43	× 76 / 224	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,511	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 89 / 235	−3.7
4	20,513	2467.6	− 2485	−17.4	× 59 / 235	−4.4
5	20,515	2500.4	− 2528	−27.6	× 87 / 235	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,499	2438.3	− 2436	2.3	× 71 / 213	0.8
4	20,501	2474.1	− 2485	−10.9	× 88 / 213	−4.5
5	20,503	2516.2	− 2528	−11.8	× 54 / 213	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,677	2430.8	− 2436	−5.2	× 81 / 232	−1.8
4	20,678	2482.5	− 2485	−2.5	× 67 / 232	−0.7
5	20,679	2502.5	− 2528	−25.5	× 84 / 232	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,689	2394.7	− 2436	−41.3	× 62 / 368	−7
4	20,690	2427.1	− 2485	−57.9	× 59 / 368	−9.3
5	20,691	2466.1	− 2528	−61.9	× 65 / 368	−10.9
6	20,692	2492.1	− 2552	−59.9	× 70 / 368	−11.4
7	20,693	2530.2	− 2567	−36.8	× 52 / 368	−5.2
8	20,694	2482.3	− 2586	−103.7	× 60 / 368	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,650	2389.8	− 2436	−46.2	× 57 / 341	−7.7
4	20,651	2453.5	− 2485	−31.5	× 59 / 341	−5.5
5	20,652	2474.1	− 2528	−53.9	× 57 / 341	−9
6	20,653	2462.4	− 2552	−89.6	× 55 / 341	−14.5
7	20,654	2545.1	− 2567	−21.9	× 67 / 341	−4.3
8	20,655	2528.2	− 2586	−57.8	× 46 / 341	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,526	2402.8	− 2436	−33.2	× 63 / 356	−5.9
4	20,527	2443.4	− 2485	−41.6	× 61 / 356	−7.1
5	20,528	2490.0	− 2528	−38	× 63 / 356	−6.7
6	20,529	2472.3	− 2552	−79.7	× 53 / 356	−11.9
7	20,530	2513.9	− 2567	−53.1	× 50 / 356	−7.5
8	20,531	2529.2	− 2586	−56.8	× 66 / 356	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,441	2377.6	− 2436	−58.4	× 67 / 349	−11.2
4	20,442	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 63 / 349	−7.5
5	20,443	2471.6	− 2528	−56.4	× 54 / 349	−8.7
6	20,444	2484.8	− 2552	−67.2	× 64 / 349	−12.3
7	20,445	2510.6	− 2567	−56.4	× 51 / 349	−8.2
8	20,446	2510.4	− 2586	−75.6	× 50 / 349	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −37, −18, −18, −7, −12, −61, −49, −50, −59 → −34.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 19 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 49 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 13.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.3 × 2.66 = 35.4. Upper limit 0.8, lower limit −70.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.