Burns Valley: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,385	2378.2	− 2436	−57.8	× 61 / 357	−9.9
4	19,387	2435.6	− 2485	−49.4	× 58 / 357	−8
5	19,389	2401.9	− 2528	−126.1	× 62 / 357	−21.9
6	19,391	2449.1	− 2552	−102.9	× 66 / 357	−19
7	19,393	2486.5	− 2567	−80.5	× 60 / 357	−13.5
8	19,396	2546.6	− 2586	−39.4	× 50 / 357	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,418	2366.4	− 2436	−69.6	× 64 / 310	−14.4
4	18,420	2370.6	− 2485	−114.4	× 56 / 310	−20.7
5	18,421	2425.5	− 2528	−102.5	× 61 / 310	−20.2
6	18,424	2432.1	− 2552	−119.9	× 63 / 310	−24.4
7	18,425	2464.3	− 2567	−102.7	× 66 / 310	−21.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,746	2378.6	− 2436	−57.4	× 72 / 304	−13.6
4	18,749	2408.2	− 2485	−76.8	× 58 / 304	−14.7
5	18,750	2395.9	− 2528	−132.1	× 59 / 304	−25.6
6	18,752	2471.8	− 2552	−80.2	× 64 / 304	−16.9
7	18,754	2447.5	− 2567	−119.5	× 51 / 304	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,765	2381.3	− 2436	−54.7	× 74 / 317	−12.8
4	18,766	2413.5	− 2485	−71.5	× 63 / 317	−14.2
5	18,769	2411.8	− 2528	−116.2	× 61 / 317	−22.4
6	18,770	2446.5	− 2552	−105.5	× 64 / 317	−21.3
7	18,773	2486.3	− 2567	−80.7	× 55 / 317	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,909	2398.2	− 2436	−37.8	× 61 / 299	−7.7
4	18,910	2422.7	− 2485	−62.3	× 60 / 299	−12.5
5	18,911	2439.0	− 2528	−89	× 65 / 299	−19.3
6	18,912	2433.0	− 2552	−119	× 53 / 299	−21.1
7	18,913	2504.3	− 2567	−62.7	× 60 / 299	−12.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,434	2359.5	− 2436	−76.5	× 53 / 246	−16.5
4	18,435	2394.4	− 2485	−90.6	× 53 / 246	−19.5
5	18,436	2403.5	− 2528	−124.5	× 49 / 246	−24.8
6	18,437	2430.5	− 2552	−121.5	× 45 / 246	−22.2
7	18,438	2460.3	− 2567	−106.7	× 46 / 246	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,958	2359.5	− 2436	−76.5	× 70 / 303	−17.7
4	18,959	2390.1	− 2485	−94.9	× 61 / 303	−19.1
5	18,960	2424.1	− 2528	−103.9	× 66 / 303	−22.6
6	18,961	2428.3	− 2552	−123.7	× 46 / 303	−18.8
7	18,962	2453.3	− 2567	−113.7	× 60 / 303	−22.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,911	2341.9	− 2436	−94.1	× 75 / 307	−23
4	18,912	2386.4	− 2485	−98.6	× 65 / 307	−20.9
5	18,913	2393.1	− 2528	−134.9	× 64 / 307	−28.1
6	18,914	2436.3	− 2552	−115.7	× 55 / 307	−20.7
7	18,915	2458.5	− 2567	−108.5	× 48 / 307	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,862	2354.5	− 2436	−81.5	× 79 / 297	−21.7
4	18,863	2384.1	− 2485	−100.9	× 74 / 297	−25.1
5	18,864	2404.6	− 2528	−123.4	× 76 / 297	−31.6
6	18,865	2437.3	− 2552	−114.7	× 68 / 297	−26.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,859	2354.8	− 2436	−81.2	× 76 / 303	−20.4
4	18,860	2407.0	− 2485	−78	× 87 / 303	−22.4
5	18,861	2392.0	− 2528	−136	× 74 / 303	−33.2
6	18,862	2418.5	− 2552	−133.5	× 66 / 303	−29.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −78, −101, −91, −85, −73, −103, −101, −110, −105, −105 → −95.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 23 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2021: 30 · 2021→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 10.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.8 × 2.66 = 28.7. Upper limit −66.5, lower limit −123.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.