James Monroe Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	18,342	2480.1	− 2552	−71.9	× 174 / 470	−26.6
7	18,344	2495.5	− 2567	−71.5	× 151 / 470	−23
8	18,346	2481.7	− 2586	−104.3	× 145 / 470	−32.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,355	2485.0	− 2552	−67	× 182 / 505	−24.1
7	17,357	2498.7	− 2567	−68.3	× 166 / 505	−22.5
8	17,359	2503.6	− 2586	−82.4	× 157 / 505	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,668	2489.0	− 2552	−63	× 152 / 498	−19.2
7	17,670	2474.1	− 2567	−92.9	× 181 / 498	−33.8
8	17,672	2485.0	− 2586	−101	× 165 / 498	−33.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,688	2488.6	− 2552	−63.4	× 150 / 468	−20.3
7	17,690	2482.1	− 2567	−84.9	× 143 / 468	−25.9
8	17,692	2466.1	− 2586	−119.9	× 175 / 468	−44.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,836	2483.3	− 2552	−68.7	× 163 / 456	−24.6
7	17,837	2480.9	− 2567	−86.1	× 149 / 456	−28.1
8	17,838	2474.4	− 2586	−111.6	× 144 / 456	−35.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,432	2472.9	− 2552	−79.1	× 166 / 442	−29.7
7	17,433	2477.5	− 2567	−89.5	× 131 / 442	−26.5
8	17,434	2482.0	− 2586	−104	× 145 / 442	−34.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,892	2459.7	− 2552	−92.3	× 170 / 477	−32.9
7	17,893	2482.7	− 2567	−84.3	× 169 / 477	−29.9
8	17,894	2465.4	− 2586	−120.6	× 138 / 477	−34.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,844	2453.0	− 2552	−99	× 160 / 506	−31.3
7	17,845	2458.8	− 2567	−108.2	× 177 / 506	−37.8
8	17,846	2476.6	− 2586	−109.4	× 169 / 506	−36.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,796	2454.8	− 2552	−97.2	× 167 / 503	−32.3
7	17,797	2460.0	− 2567	−107	× 163 / 503	−34.7
8	17,798	2453.5	− 2586	−132.5	× 173 / 503	−45.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	17,792	2445.3	− 2552	−106.7	× 133 / 429	−33.1
7	17,793	2450.7	− 2567	−116.3	× 142 / 429	−38.5
8	17,794	2463.9	− 2586	−122.1	× 154 / 429	−43.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −82, −72, −86, −91, −88, −90, −98, −106, −113, −115 → −94.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 2 · 2021→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 6.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.6 × 2.66 = 17.6. Upper limit −76.5, lower limit −111.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25.