Alicante Avenue Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,278	2398.9	− 2436	−37.1	× 188 / 654	−10.7
4	17,279	2410.0	− 2485	−75	× 157 / 654	−18
5	17,282	2416.7	− 2528	−111.3	× 158 / 654	−26.9
6	17,283	2450.5	− 2552	−101.5	× 151 / 654	−23.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,295	2401.3	− 2436	−34.7	× 148 / 627	−8.2
4	16,296	2430.6	− 2485	−54.4	× 175 / 627	−15.2
5	16,299	2437.8	− 2528	−90.2	× 145 / 627	−20.9
6	16,300	2455.0	− 2552	−97	× 159 / 627	−24.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,600	2384.5	− 2436	−51.5	× 170 / 646	−13.6
4	16,602	2420.1	− 2485	−64.9	× 146 / 646	−14.7
5	16,604	2437.0	− 2528	−91	× 176 / 646	−24.8
6	16,605	2478.3	− 2552	−73.7	× 154 / 646	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,616	2397.0	− 2436	−39	× 170 / 654	−10.1
4	16,618	2412.9	− 2485	−72.1	× 174 / 654	−19.2
5	16,620	2427.4	− 2528	−100.6	× 146 / 654	−22.5
6	16,622	2487.1	− 2552	−64.9	× 164 / 654	−16.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,749	2407.1	− 2436	−28.9	× 153 / 633	−7
4	16,750	2423.8	− 2485	−61.2	× 168 / 633	−16.2
5	16,751	2434.1	− 2528	−93.9	× 170 / 633	−25.2
6	16,752	2457.6	− 2552	−94.4	× 142 / 633	−21.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,787	2375.7	− 2436	−60.3	× 127 / 573	−13.4
4	16,788	2413.5	− 2485	−71.5	× 132 / 573	−16.5
5	16,789	2414.2	− 2528	−113.8	× 167 / 573	−33.2
6	16,790	2429.9	− 2552	−122.1	× 147 / 573	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,729	2379.9	− 2436	−56.1	× 136 / 557	−13.7
4	16,730	2411.4	− 2485	−73.6	× 125 / 557	−16.5
5	16,731	2424.8	− 2528	−103.2	× 127 / 557	−23.5
6	16,732	2419.5	− 2552	−132.5	× 169 / 557	−40.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,682	2390.4	− 2436	−45.6	× 142 / 524	−12.4
4	16,683	2419.3	− 2485	−65.7	× 133 / 524	−16.7
5	16,684	2436.5	− 2528	−91.5	× 126 / 524	−22
6	16,685	2458.4	− 2552	−93.6	× 123 / 524	−22
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,673	2376.3	− 2436	−59.7	× 139 / 540	−15.4
4	16,674	2416.3	− 2485	−68.7	× 141 / 540	−17.9
5	16,675	2413.0	− 2528	−115	× 134 / 540	−28.5
6	16,676	2441.6	− 2552	−110.4	× 126 / 540	−25.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −79, −69, −71, −68, −70, −94, −94, −73, −88 → −78.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 21 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 9.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.6 × 2.66 = 25.5. Upper limit −52.9, lower limit −103.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.