Kernville Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,179	2391.6	− 2436	−44.4	× 74 / 495	−6.6
4	17,182	2424.8	− 2485	−60.2	× 73 / 495	−8.9
5	17,183	2446.0	− 2528	−82	× 84 / 495	−13.9
6	17,186	2455.4	− 2552	−96.6	× 79 / 495	−15.4
7	17,187	2506.4	− 2567	−60.6	× 85 / 495	−10.4
8	17,190	2492.5	− 2586	−93.5	× 100 / 495	−18.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,195	2394.4	− 2436	−41.6	× 98 / 511	−8
4	16,197	2427.1	− 2485	−57.9	× 70 / 511	−7.9
5	16,198	2446.8	− 2528	−81.2	× 82 / 511	−13
6	16,201	2453.5	− 2552	−98.5	× 94 / 511	−18.1
7	16,203	2490.6	− 2567	−76.4	× 81 / 511	−12.1
8	16,205	2534.4	− 2586	−51.6	× 86 / 511	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,511	2398.6	− 2436	−37.4	× 114 / 571	−7.5
4	16,513	2414.2	− 2485	−70.8	× 99 / 571	−12.3
5	16,516	2427.6	− 2528	−100.4	× 86 / 571	−15.1
6	16,518	2457.2	− 2552	−94.8	× 88 / 571	−14.6
7	16,519	2485.7	− 2567	−81.3	× 102 / 571	−14.5
8	16,521	2510.0	− 2586	−76	× 82 / 571	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,528	2382.7	− 2436	−53.3	× 89 / 576	−8.2
4	16,530	2402.9	− 2485	−82.1	× 105 / 576	−15
5	16,532	2407.3	− 2528	−120.7	× 102 / 576	−21.4
6	16,534	2438.8	− 2552	−113.2	× 90 / 576	−17.7
7	16,536	2474.1	− 2567	−92.9	× 90 / 576	−14.5
8	16,538	2491.7	− 2586	−94.3	× 100 / 576	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,663	2386.0	− 2436	−50	× 86 / 560	−7.7
4	16,664	2426.0	− 2485	−59	× 93 / 560	−9.8
5	16,665	2421.0	− 2528	−107	× 99 / 560	−18.9
6	16,666	2449.9	− 2552	−102.1	× 105 / 560	−19.1
7	16,667	2483.2	− 2567	−83.8	× 92 / 560	−13.8
8	16,668	2487.1	− 2586	−98.9	× 85 / 560	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,701	2363.2	− 2436	−72.8	× 81 / 510	−11.6
4	16,702	2415.9	− 2485	−69.1	× 91 / 510	−12.3
5	16,703	2429.3	− 2528	−98.7	× 85 / 510	−16.5
6	16,704	2429.6	− 2552	−122.4	× 79 / 510	−19
7	16,705	2449.0	− 2567	−118	× 87 / 510	−20.1
8	16,706	2474.9	− 2586	−111.1	× 87 / 510	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,643	2379.3	− 2436	−56.7	× 78 / 517	−8.6
4	16,644	2411.6	− 2485	−73.4	× 80 / 517	−11.4
5	16,645	2439.0	− 2528	−89	× 94 / 517	−16.2
6	16,646	2410.7	− 2552	−141.3	× 90 / 517	−24.6
7	16,647	2460.5	− 2567	−106.5	× 85 / 517	−17.5
8	16,648	2449.6	− 2586	−136.4	× 90 / 517	−23.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,596	2357.5	− 2436	−78.5	× 73 / 490	−11.7
4	16,597	2399.9	− 2485	−85.1	× 74 / 490	−12.9
5	16,598	2429.1	− 2528	−98.9	× 84 / 490	−17
6	16,599	2436.5	− 2552	−115.5	× 93 / 490	−21.9
7	16,600	2443.0	− 2567	−124	× 77 / 490	−19.5
8	16,601	2445.7	− 2586	−140.3	× 89 / 490	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,587	2369.3	− 2436	−66.7	× 73 / 484	−10.1
4	16,588	2397.1	− 2485	−87.9	× 74 / 484	−13.4
5	16,589	2418.2	− 2528	−109.8	× 76 / 484	−17.2
6	16,590	2430.9	− 2552	−121.1	× 84 / 484	−21
7	16,591	2472.6	− 2567	−94.4	× 92 / 484	−17.9
8	16,592	2470.2	− 2586	−115.8	× 85 / 484	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −74, −68, −75, −93, −84, −98, −102, −108, −100 → −89.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 18 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9 × 2.66 = 23.9. Upper limit −65.2, lower limit −113.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.