Kern County Special Education: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,755	2306.4	− 2436	−129.6	× 19 / 115	−21.4
4	15,756	2335.6	− 2485	−149.4	× 21 / 115	−27.3
5	15,759	2344.8	− 2528	−183.2	× 13 / 115	−20.7
6	15,760	2347.2	− 2552	−204.8	× 20 / 115	−35.6
7	15,763	2363.6	− 2567	−203.4	× 20 / 115	−35.4
8	15,764	2375.2	− 2586	−210.8	× 22 / 115	−40.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−181

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	14,772	2273.7	− 2436	−162.3	× 20 / 112	−29
4	14,774	2341.8	− 2485	−143.2	× 17 / 112	−21.7
5	14,777	2353.8	− 2528	−174.2	× 19 / 112	−29.6
6	14,778	2316.9	− 2552	−235.1	× 17 / 112	−35.7
7	14,780	2359.8	− 2567	−207.2	× 15 / 112	−27.8
8	14,782	2356.8	− 2586	−229.2	× 24 / 112	−49.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−193

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,090	2334.6	− 2436	−101.4	× 19 / 113	−17
4	15,092	2362.8	− 2485	−122.2	× 17 / 113	−18.4
5	15,093	2358.5	− 2528	−169.5	× 19 / 113	−28.5
6	15,095	2292.1	− 2552	−259.9	× 23 / 113	−52.9
7	15,098	2350.5	− 2567	−216.5	× 21 / 113	−40.2
8	15,099	2356.1	− 2586	−229.9	× 14 / 113	−28.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−186

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,113	2364.9	− 2436	−71.1	× 20 / 88	−16.2
4	15,114	2328.2	− 2485	−156.8	× 17 / 88	−30.3
6	15,118	2353.2	− 2552	−198.8	× 16 / 88	−36.1
7	15,121	2353.7	− 2567	−213.3	× 23 / 88	−55.7
8	15,122	2333.2	− 2586	−252.8	× 12 / 88	−34.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−173

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	15,225	2405.3	− 2485	−79.7	× 15 / 66	−18.1
5	15,226	2380.8	− 2528	−147.2	× 14 / 66	−31.2
7	15,228	2367.0	− 2567	−200	× 15 / 66	−45.5
8	15,229	2354.3	− 2586	−231.7	× 22 / 66	−77.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−172

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	15,241	2317.5	− 2528	−210.5	× 11 / 42	−55.1
7	15,243	2430.9	− 2567	−136.1	× 14 / 42	−45.4
8	15,244	2356.1	− 2586	−229.9	× 17 / 42	−93.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−194

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	15,188	2300.6	− 2485	−184.4	× 11 / 37	−54.8
6	15,190	2322.4	− 2552	−229.6	× 12 / 37	−74.5
7	15,191	2382.7	− 2567	−184.3	× 14 / 37	−69.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−199

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	15,140	2324.1	− 2567	−242.9	× 11 / 11	−242.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−243

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	15,132	2332.5	− 2552	−219.5	× 11 / 11	−219.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−220

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −181, −193, −186, −173, −172, −194, −199, −243, −220 → −195.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 13 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 44 · 2024→2025: 23 → average 15.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.9 × 2.66 = 42.3. Upper limit −153.4, lower limit −238.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.