Dr. Juliet Thorner Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,158	2409.4	− 2436	−26.6	× 137 / 499	−7.3
4	16,159	2450.2	− 2485	−34.8	× 121 / 499	−8.4
5	16,162	2460.6	− 2528	−67.4	× 131 / 499	−17.7
6	16,163	2514.2	− 2552	−37.8	× 110 / 499	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,178	2430.3	− 2436	−5.7	× 114 / 486	−1.3
4	15,180	2455.0	− 2485	−30	× 125 / 486	−7.7
5	15,182	2465.0	− 2528	−63	× 117 / 486	−15.2
6	15,185	2511.1	− 2552	−40.9	× 130 / 486	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,496	2446.8	− 2436	10.8	× 112 / 472	2.6
4	15,497	2457.1	− 2485	−27.9	× 117 / 472	−6.9
5	15,500	2457.7	− 2528	−70.3	× 128 / 472	−19.1
6	15,501	2495.5	− 2552	−56.5	× 115 / 472	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,516	2438.3	− 2436	2.3	× 121 / 484	0.6
4	15,518	2456.7	− 2485	−28.3	× 115 / 484	−6.7
5	15,520	2448.1	− 2528	−79.9	× 120 / 484	−19.8
6	15,522	2508.0	− 2552	−44	× 128 / 484	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,631	2452.4	− 2436	16.4	× 123 / 485	4.2
4	15,632	2454.2	− 2485	−30.8	× 120 / 485	−7.6
5	15,633	2466.9	− 2528	−61.1	× 122 / 485	−15.4
6	15,634	2478.2	− 2552	−73.8	× 120 / 485	−18.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,671	2379.2	− 2436	−56.8	× 106 / 445	−13.5
4	15,672	2410.5	− 2485	−74.5	× 106 / 445	−17.7
5	15,673	2451.6	− 2528	−76.4	× 119 / 445	−20.4
6	15,674	2461.6	− 2552	−90.4	× 114 / 445	−23.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,623	2392.3	− 2436	−43.7	× 117 / 447	−11.4
4	15,624	2410.9	− 2485	−74.1	× 101 / 447	−16.7
5	15,625	2456.9	− 2528	−71.1	× 114 / 447	−18.1
6	15,626	2471.9	− 2552	−80.1	× 115 / 447	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,576	2394.8	− 2436	−41.2	× 127 / 486	−10.8
4	15,577	2410.5	− 2485	−74.5	× 133 / 486	−20.4
5	15,578	2439.0	− 2528	−89	× 108 / 486	−19.8
6	15,579	2459.8	− 2552	−92.2	× 118 / 486	−22.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,563	2370.6	− 2436	−65.4	× 106 / 484	−14.3
4	15,564	2412.7	− 2485	−72.3	× 137 / 484	−20.5
5	15,565	2441.1	− 2528	−86.9	× 131 / 484	−23.5
6	15,566	2431.0	− 2552	−121	× 110 / 484	−27.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −35, −37, −38, −37, −75, −67, −73, −86 → −54.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 38 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 13 → average 9.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.5 × 2.66 = 25.3. Upper limit −29.1, lower limit −79.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.