Trinity Valley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,870	2358.7	− 2436	−77.3	× 23 / 116	−15.3
4	13,873	2439.2	− 2485	−45.8	× 23 / 116	−9.1
5	13,874	2388.6	− 2528	−139.4	× 20 / 116	−24
6	13,877	2427.8	− 2552	−124.2	× 17 / 116	−18.2
7	13,878	2501.4	− 2567	−65.6	× 15 / 116	−8.5
8	13,881	2463.9	− 2586	−122.1	× 18 / 116	−18.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,900	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 16 / 112	−4
4	12,903	2427.8	− 2485	−57.2	× 21 / 112	−10.7
5	12,904	2450.8	− 2528	−77.2	× 21 / 112	−14.5
6	12,907	2405.9	− 2552	−146.1	× 19 / 112	−24.8
7	12,909	2479.9	− 2567	−87.1	× 21 / 112	−16.3
8	12,910	2495.4	− 2586	−90.6	× 14 / 112	−11.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,219	2381.8	− 2436	−54.2	× 18 / 116	−8.4
4	13,221	2413.9	− 2485	−71.1	× 17 / 116	−10.4
5	13,223	2430.2	− 2528	−97.8	× 19 / 116	−16
6	13,226	2402.0	− 2552	−150	× 24 / 116	−31
7	13,227	2468.8	− 2567	−98.2	× 19 / 116	−16.1
8	13,230	2426.0	− 2586	−160	× 19 / 116	−26.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,233	2390.4	− 2436	−45.6	× 24 / 127	−8.6
4	13,236	2443.3	− 2485	−41.7	× 23 / 127	−7.6
5	13,237	2427.0	− 2528	−101	× 18 / 127	−14.3
6	13,240	2420.8	− 2552	−131.2	× 20 / 127	−20.7
7	13,241	2429.9	− 2567	−137.1	× 23 / 127	−24.8
8	13,244	2414.9	− 2586	−171.1	× 19 / 127	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,361	2384.1	− 2436	−51.9	× 18 / 118	−7.9
4	13,362	2437.4	− 2485	−47.6	× 24 / 118	−9.7
5	13,363	2447.0	− 2528	−81	× 21 / 118	−14.4
6	13,364	2505.5	− 2552	−46.5	× 15 / 118	−5.9
7	13,365	2442.9	− 2567	−124.1	× 18 / 118	−18.9
8	13,366	2453.0	− 2586	−133	× 22 / 118	−24.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	13,387	2431.3	− 2485	−53.7	× 12 / 87	−7.4
5	13,388	2415.6	− 2528	−112.4	× 21 / 87	−27.1
6	13,389	2433.5	− 2552	−118.5	× 18 / 87	−24.5
7	13,390	2453.1	− 2567	−113.9	× 16 / 87	−20.9
8	13,391	2438.6	− 2586	−147.4	× 20 / 87	−33.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,363	2343.2	− 2436	−92.8	× 19 / 79	−22.3
4	13,364	2397.6	− 2485	−87.4	× 15 / 79	−16.6
5	13,365	2461.0	− 2528	−67	× 16 / 79	−13.6
7	13,367	2473.1	− 2567	−93.9	× 14 / 79	−16.6
8	13,368	2458.5	− 2586	−127.5	× 15 / 79	−24.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	13,325	2425.7	− 2485	−59.3	× 20 / 90	−13.2
5	13,326	2396.5	− 2528	−131.5	× 11 / 90	−16.1
6	13,327	2446.2	− 2552	−105.8	× 19 / 90	−22.3
7	13,328	2442.8	− 2567	−124.2	× 21 / 90	−29
8	13,329	2463.3	− 2586	−122.7	× 19 / 90	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,288	2356.4	− 2436	−79.6	× 22 / 117	−15
4	13,289	2454.4	− 2485	−30.6	× 19 / 117	−5
5	13,290	2428.0	− 2528	−100	× 20 / 117	−17.1
6	13,291	2470.8	− 2552	−81.2	× 13 / 117	−9
7	13,292	2483.6	− 2567	−83.4	× 20 / 117	−14.3
8	13,293	2489.3	− 2586	−96.7	× 23 / 117	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −94, −82, −108, −102, −82, −114, −93, −106, −79 → −95.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 26 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2022: 32 · 2022→2023: 21 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 27 → average 19.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 19.6 × 2.66 = 52.1. Upper limit −43.5, lower limit −147.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.