Hoopa Valley Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,828	2311.3	− 2436	−124.7	× 42 / 269	−19.5
4	13,831	2394.8	− 2485	−90.2	× 50 / 269	−16.8
5	13,832	2383.7	− 2528	−144.3	× 44 / 269	−23.6
6	13,834	2383.1	− 2552	−168.9	× 42 / 269	−26.4
7	13,836	2407.7	− 2567	−159.3	× 43 / 269	−25.5
8	13,838	2400.3	− 2586	−185.7	× 48 / 269	−33.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,858	2343.7	− 2436	−92.3	× 46 / 275	−15.4
4	12,861	2380.7	− 2485	−104.3	× 44 / 275	−16.7
5	12,862	2405.0	− 2528	−123	× 52 / 275	−23.3
6	12,864	2369.5	− 2552	−182.5	× 45 / 275	−29.9
7	12,867	2409.5	− 2567	−157.5	× 42 / 275	−24.1
8	12,869	2439.6	− 2586	−146.4	× 46 / 275	−24.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−134

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,177	2352.5	− 2436	−83.5	× 56 / 263	−17.8
4	13,179	2394.0	− 2485	−91	× 41 / 263	−14.2
5	13,181	2377.3	− 2528	−150.7	× 46 / 263	−26.4
6	13,184	2386.7	− 2552	−165.3	× 48 / 263	−30.2
7	13,186	2378.4	− 2567	−188.6	× 37 / 263	−26.5
8	13,187	2400.4	− 2586	−185.6	× 35 / 263	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−140

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,191	2352.6	− 2436	−83.4	× 38 / 238	−13.3
4	13,194	2384.7	− 2485	−100.3	× 47 / 238	−19.8
5	13,195	2413.5	− 2528	−114.5	× 40 / 238	−19.2
6	13,198	2367.9	− 2552	−184.1	× 39 / 238	−30.2
7	13,199	2419.6	− 2567	−147.4	× 43 / 238	−26.6
8	13,202	2387.0	− 2586	−199	× 31 / 238	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,321	2348.6	− 2436	−87.4	× 50 / 269	−16.2
4	13,322	2405.0	− 2485	−80	× 44 / 269	−13.1
5	13,323	2397.7	− 2528	−130.3	× 51 / 269	−24.7
6	13,324	2421.3	− 2552	−130.7	× 38 / 269	−18.5
7	13,325	2387.5	− 2567	−179.5	× 36 / 269	−24
8	13,326	2428.5	− 2586	−157.5	× 50 / 269	−29.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,346	2319.7	− 2436	−116.3	× 26 / 231	−13.1
4	13,347	2369.9	− 2485	−115.1	× 38 / 231	−18.9
5	13,348	2361.4	− 2528	−166.6	× 39 / 231	−28.1
6	13,349	2397.4	− 2552	−154.6	× 43 / 231	−28.8
7	13,350	2349.3	− 2567	−217.7	× 36 / 231	−33.9
8	13,351	2396.0	− 2586	−190	× 49 / 231	−40.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−163

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,323	2324.2	− 2436	−111.8	× 29 / 148	−21.9
4	13,324	2366.1	− 2485	−118.9	× 27 / 148	−21.7
6	13,326	2317.2	− 2552	−234.8	× 25 / 148	−39.7
7	13,327	2371.6	− 2567	−195.4	× 37 / 148	−48.9
8	13,328	2346.1	− 2586	−239.9	× 30 / 148	−48.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−181

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,284	2300.2	− 2436	−135.8	× 36 / 176	−27.8
4	13,285	2337.4	− 2485	−147.6	× 30 / 176	−25.2
5	13,286	2390.6	− 2528	−137.4	× 21 / 176	−16.4
6	13,287	2389.1	− 2552	−162.9	× 32 / 176	−29.6
7	13,288	2343.0	− 2567	−224	× 28 / 176	−35.6
8	13,289	2429.6	− 2586	−156.4	× 29 / 176	−25.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−160

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,250	2294.7	− 2436	−141.3	× 22 / 180	−17.3
4	13,251	2349.5	− 2485	−135.5	× 37 / 180	−27.9
5	13,252	2362.8	− 2528	−165.2	× 32 / 180	−29.4
6	13,253	2369.3	− 2552	−182.7	× 28 / 180	−28.4
7	13,254	2411.4	− 2567	−155.6	× 27 / 180	−23.3
8	13,255	2358.1	− 2586	−227.9	× 34 / 180	−43
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−169

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −145, −134, −140, −135, −126, −163, −181, −160, −169 → −150.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 37 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 21 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 14.5
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.5 × 2.66 = 38.6. Upper limit −111.7, lower limit −188.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.