Theodore Roosevelt Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,100	2393.2	− 2436	−42.8	× 118 / 404	−12.5
4	12,102	2416.6	− 2485	−68.4	× 96 / 404	−16.3
5	12,104	2462.8	− 2528	−65.2	× 96 / 404	−15.5
6	12,106	2495.4	− 2552	−56.6	× 94 / 404	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,117	2412.5	− 2436	−23.5	× 121 / 404	−7
4	11,118	2419.0	− 2485	−66	× 96 / 404	−15.7
5	11,120	2438.6	− 2528	−89.4	× 94 / 404	−20.8
6	11,122	2512.8	− 2552	−39.2	× 93 / 404	−9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,446	2400.2	− 2436	−35.8	× 108 / 398	−9.7
4	11,449	2428.9	− 2485	−56.1	× 96 / 398	−13.5
5	11,450	2455.0	− 2528	−73	× 98 / 398	−18
6	11,452	2466.6	− 2552	−85.4	× 96 / 398	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,482	2414.7	− 2436	−21.3	× 112 / 398	−6
4	11,484	2426.0	− 2485	−59	× 95 / 398	−14.1
5	11,486	2467.4	− 2528	−60.6	× 96 / 398	−14.6
6	11,488	2498.2	− 2552	−53.8	× 95 / 398	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,573	2427.1	− 2436	−8.9	× 99 / 386	−2.3
4	11,574	2439.7	− 2485	−45.3	× 96 / 386	−11.3
5	11,575	2466.6	− 2528	−61.4	× 96 / 386	−15.3
6	11,576	2488.1	− 2552	−63.9	× 95 / 386	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,552	2397.0	− 2436	−39	× 80 / 358	−8.7
4	11,553	2416.4	− 2485	−68.6	× 97 / 358	−18.6
5	11,554	2465.7	− 2528	−62.3	× 95 / 358	−16.5
6	11,555	2499.2	− 2552	−52.8	× 86 / 358	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,535	2409.7	− 2436	−26.3	× 95 / 367	−6.8
4	11,536	2441.1	− 2485	−43.9	× 83 / 367	−9.9
5	11,537	2465.2	− 2528	−62.8	× 95 / 367	−16.3
6	11,538	2495.4	− 2552	−56.6	× 94 / 367	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,494	2402.2	− 2436	−33.8	× 94 / 369	−8.6
4	11,495	2435.1	− 2485	−49.9	× 95 / 369	−12.8
5	11,496	2472.6	− 2528	−55.4	× 88 / 369	−13.2
6	11,497	2460.8	− 2552	−91.2	× 92 / 369	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,429	2401.7	− 2436	−34.3	× 72 / 348	−7.1
4	11,430	2450.3	− 2485	−34.7	× 93 / 348	−9.3
5	11,431	2464.9	− 2528	−63.1	× 94 / 348	−17
6	11,432	2481.1	− 2552	−70.9	× 89 / 348	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −57, −53, −62, −48, −45, −57, −47, −57, −52 → −53.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 5 → average 8.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.4 × 2.66 = 22.3. Upper limit −30.8, lower limit −75.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.