Alta Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,424	2382.6	− 2436	−53.4	× 75 / 205	−19.5
4	11,426	2407.0	− 2485	−78	× 64 / 205	−24.4
5	11,428	2468.1	− 2528	−59.9	× 66 / 205	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,435	2396.7	− 2436	−39.3	× 56 / 183	−12
4	10,437	2436.2	− 2485	−48.8	× 64 / 183	−17.1
5	10,438	2501.4	− 2528	−26.6	× 63 / 183	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,767	2397.6	− 2436	−38.4	× 51 / 176	−11.1
4	10,769	2433.3	− 2485	−51.7	× 61 / 176	−17.9
5	10,770	2506.4	− 2528	−21.6	× 64 / 176	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,772	2432.1	− 2436	−3.9	× 52 / 169	−1.2
4	10,775	2449.9	− 2485	−35.1	× 58 / 169	−12
5	10,776	2484.1	− 2528	−43.9	× 59 / 169	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,850	2423.1	− 2436	−12.9	× 52 / 171	−3.9
4	10,851	2474.3	− 2485	−10.7	× 64 / 171	−4
5	10,852	2506.3	− 2528	−21.7	× 55 / 171	−7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,706	2369.4	− 2436	−66.6	× 50 / 168	−19.8
4	10,707	2420.6	− 2485	−64.4	× 59 / 168	−22.6
5	10,708	2443.8	− 2528	−84.2	× 59 / 168	−29.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,865	2393.3	− 2436	−42.7	× 52 / 162	−13.7
4	10,866	2444.1	− 2485	−40.9	× 57 / 162	−14.4
5	10,867	2501.3	− 2528	−26.7	× 53 / 162	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,847	2430.4	− 2436	−5.6	× 52 / 163	−1.8
4	10,848	2447.4	− 2485	−37.6	× 52 / 163	−12
5	10,849	2500.9	− 2528	−27.1	× 59 / 163	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,807	2463.5	− 2436	27.5	× 67 / 168	11
4	10,808	2438.7	− 2485	−46.3	× 50 / 168	−13.8
5	10,809	2456.4	− 2528	−71.6	× 51 / 168	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,780	2504.4	− 2436	68.4	× 55 / 164	22.9
4	10,781	2487.4	− 2485	2.4	× 63 / 164	0.9
5	10,782	2512.9	− 2528	−15.1	× 46 / 164	−4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						20

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −38, −37, −29, −15, −72, −37, −24, −25, 20 → −32
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 25 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2021: 57 · 2021→2022: 35 · 2022→2023: 13 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 45 → average 22.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 22.1 × 2.66 = 58.8. Upper limit 26.8, lower limit −90.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.