San Joaquin Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,705	2358.6	− 2436	−77.4	× 91 / 524	−13.4
4	12,708	2395.8	− 2485	−89.2	× 65 / 524	−11.1
5	12,709	2399.0	− 2528	−129	× 96 / 524	−23.6
6	12,712	2428.0	− 2552	−124	× 99 / 524	−23.4
7	12,713	2418.0	− 2567	−149	× 87 / 524	−24.7
8	12,716	2472.2	− 2586	−113.8	× 86 / 524	−18.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,729	2360.6	− 2436	−75.4	× 92 / 526	−13.2
4	11,730	2405.4	− 2485	−79.6	× 99 / 526	−15
5	11,733	2410.3	− 2528	−117.7	× 59 / 526	−13.2
6	11,734	2401.1	− 2552	−150.9	× 97 / 526	−27.8
7	11,737	2434.2	− 2567	−132.8	× 93 / 526	−23.5
8	11,738	2480.5	− 2586	−105.5	× 86 / 526	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,059	2392.4	− 2436	−43.6	× 73 / 499	−6.4
4	12,061	2384.1	− 2485	−100.9	× 84 / 499	−17
5	12,062	2384.3	− 2528	−143.7	× 92 / 499	−26.5
6	12,064	2421.5	− 2552	−130.5	× 60 / 499	−15.7
7	12,067	2444.7	− 2567	−122.3	× 95 / 499	−23.3
8	12,068	2478.5	− 2586	−107.5	× 95 / 499	−20.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,094	2345.8	− 2436	−90.2	× 77 / 490	−14.2
4	12,097	2412.6	− 2485	−72.4	× 78 / 490	−11.5
5	12,098	2380.4	− 2528	−147.6	× 85 / 490	−25.6
6	12,101	2384.2	− 2552	−167.8	× 93 / 490	−31.8
7	12,102	2445.3	− 2567	−121.7	× 60 / 490	−14.9
8	12,105	2455.9	− 2586	−130.1	× 97 / 490	−25.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−124

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,189	2385.5	− 2436	−50.5	× 65 / 391	−8.4
4	12,190	2392.0	− 2485	−93	× 73 / 391	−17.4
5	12,191	2414.7	− 2528	−113.3	× 59 / 391	−17.1
6	12,192	2436.4	− 2552	−115.6	× 63 / 391	−18.6
7	12,193	2399.8	− 2567	−167.2	× 72 / 391	−30.8
8	12,194	2444.5	− 2586	−141.5	× 59 / 391	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,011	2352.7	− 2436	−83.3	× 62 / 380	−13.6
4	12,012	2370.3	− 2485	−114.7	× 67 / 380	−20.2
5	12,013	2379.5	− 2528	−148.5	× 64 / 380	−25
6	12,014	2394.5	− 2552	−157.5	× 63 / 380	−26.1
7	12,015	2457.8	− 2567	−109.2	× 56 / 380	−16.1
8	12,016	2439.0	− 2586	−147	× 68 / 380	−26.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,198	2359.9	− 2436	−76.1	× 58 / 347	−12.7
4	12,199	2397.9	− 2485	−87.1	× 61 / 347	−15.3
5	12,200	2407.6	− 2528	−120.4	× 59 / 347	−20.5
6	12,201	2434.6	− 2552	−117.4	× 55 / 347	−18.6
7	12,202	2402.6	− 2567	−164.4	× 56 / 347	−26.5
8	12,203	2460.6	− 2586	−125.4	× 58 / 347	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,177	2358.9	− 2436	−77.1	× 55 / 336	−12.6
4	12,178	2402.3	− 2485	−82.7	× 55 / 336	−13.5
5	12,179	2428.9	− 2528	−99.1	× 62 / 336	−18.3
6	12,180	2421.8	− 2552	−130.2	× 56 / 336	−21.7
7	12,181	2477.6	− 2567	−89.4	× 52 / 336	−13.8
8	12,182	2429.2	− 2586	−156.8	× 56 / 336	−26.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,140	2366.5	− 2436	−69.5	× 53 / 336	−11
4	12,141	2432.4	− 2485	−52.6	× 56 / 336	−8.8
5	12,142	2425.4	− 2528	−102.6	× 59 / 336	−18
6	12,143	2439.7	− 2552	−112.3	× 63 / 336	−21.1
7	12,144	2457.8	− 2567	−109.2	× 56 / 336	−18.2
8	12,145	2509.8	− 2586	−76.2	× 49 / 336	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,093	2368.2	− 2436	−67.8	× 68 / 360	−12.8
4	12,094	2390.4	− 2485	−94.6	× 61 / 360	−16
5	12,095	2429.3	− 2528	−98.7	× 57 / 360	−15.6
6	12,096	2451.4	− 2552	−100.6	× 56 / 360	−15.6
7	12,097	2469.9	− 2567	−97.1	× 63 / 360	−17
8	12,098	2461.7	− 2586	−124.3	× 55 / 360	−19
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−96

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −115, −110, −109, −124, −114, −127, −115, −106, −88, −96 → −110.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2021: 13 · 2021→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 18 · 2024→2025: 8 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −83.5, lower limit −137.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.