Sunset Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,095	2384.8	− 2436	−51.2	× 37 / 112	−16.9
4	11,097	2470.1	− 2485	−14.9	× 35 / 112	−4.7
5	11,099	2463.2	− 2528	−64.8	× 20 / 112	−11.6
6	11,101	2519.5	− 2552	−32.5	× 20 / 112	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,113	2398.7	− 2436	−37.3	× 35 / 109	−12
4	10,115	2478.5	− 2485	−6.5	× 30 / 109	−1.8
5	10,116	2530.7	− 2528	2.7	× 27 / 109	0.7
6	10,118	2489.9	− 2552	−62.1	× 17 / 109	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,440	2444.1	− 2436	8.1	× 38 / 118	2.6
4	10,443	2439.0	− 2485	−46	× 30 / 118	−11.7
5	10,444	2497.1	− 2528	−30.9	× 27 / 118	−7.1
6	10,446	2581.3	− 2552	29.3	× 23 / 118	5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,453	2381.1	− 2436	−54.9	× 33 / 118	−15.4
4	10,454	2475.6	− 2485	−9.4	× 36 / 118	−2.9
5	10,457	2482.9	− 2528	−45.1	× 25 / 118	−9.6
6	10,458	2572.9	− 2552	20.9	× 24 / 118	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,533	2406.0	− 2436	−30	× 46 / 136	−10.1
4	10,534	2429.5	− 2485	−55.5	× 33 / 136	−13.5
5	10,535	2527.2	− 2528	−0.8	× 33 / 136	−0.2
6	10,536	2570.0	− 2552	18	× 24 / 136	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,526	2411.5	− 2436	−24.5	× 61 / 185	−8.1
4	10,527	2462.3	− 2485	−22.7	× 44 / 185	−5.4
5	10,528	2467.2	− 2528	−60.8	× 44 / 185	−14.5
6	10,529	2505.3	− 2552	−46.7	× 36 / 185	−9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,514	2444.7	− 2436	8.7	× 54 / 189	2.5
4	10,515	2461.1	− 2485	−23.9	× 57 / 189	−7.2
5	10,516	2482.4	− 2528	−45.6	× 38 / 189	−9.2
6	10,517	2545.6	− 2552	−6.4	× 40 / 189	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,480	2464.7	− 2436	28.7	× 49 / 182	7.7
4	10,481	2473.2	− 2485	−11.8	× 54 / 182	−3.5
5	10,482	2489.8	− 2528	−38.2	× 47 / 182	−9.9
6	10,483	2591.2	− 2552	39.2	× 32 / 182	6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,457	2450.6	− 2436	14.6	× 48 / 191	3.7
4	10,458	2493.1	− 2485	8.1	× 49 / 191	2.1
5	10,459	2505.2	− 2528	−22.8	× 50 / 191	−6
6	10,460	2552.7	− 2552	0.7	× 44 / 191	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −39, −23, −10, −24, −21, −37, −15, 1, 0 → −18.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 22 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 1 → average 12.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.6 × 2.66 = 33.5. Upper limit 14.8, lower limit −52.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.