Baird Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	10,553	2498.6	− 2528	−29.4	× 130 / 584	−6.5
6	10,554	2504.0	− 2552	−48	× 158 / 584	−13
7	10,557	2525.6	− 2567	−41.4	× 150 / 584	−10.6
8	10,558	2545.8	− 2586	−40.2	× 146 / 584	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,571	2511.9	− 2528	−16.1	× 131 / 584	−3.6
6	9,572	2524.5	− 2552	−27.5	× 155 / 584	−7.3
7	9,574	2546.5	− 2567	−20.5	× 160 / 584	−5.6
8	9,576	2560.6	− 2586	−25.4	× 138 / 584	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,898	2511.9	− 2528	−16.1	× 148 / 594	−4
6	9,900	2545.0	− 2552	−7	× 150 / 594	−1.8
7	9,903	2547.7	− 2567	−19.3	× 150 / 594	−4.9
8	9,905	2561.2	− 2586	−24.8	× 146 / 594	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,917	2526.6	− 2528	−1.4	× 150 / 583	−0.4
6	9,918	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 146 / 583	−4.4
7	9,921	2560.5	− 2567	−6.5	× 148 / 583	−1.7
8	9,922	2573.6	− 2586	−12.4	× 139 / 583	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,997	2537.0	− 2528	9	× 156 / 595	2.4
6	9,998	2553.2	− 2552	1.2	× 151 / 595	0.3
7	9,999	2551.5	− 2567	−15.5	× 143 / 595	−3.7
8	10,000	2573.6	− 2586	−12.4	× 145 / 595	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,990	2501.4	− 2528	−26.6	× 140 / 559	−6.7
6	9,991	2514.0	− 2552	−38	× 147 / 559	−10
7	9,992	2542.7	− 2567	−24.3	× 135 / 559	−5.9
8	9,993	2563.3	− 2586	−22.7	× 137 / 559	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,978	2521.4	− 2528	−6.6	× 149 / 573	−1.7
6	9,979	2513.9	− 2552	−38.1	× 146 / 573	−9.7
7	9,980	2535.7	− 2567	−31.3	× 149 / 573	−8.1
8	9,981	2553.7	− 2586	−32.3	× 129 / 573	−7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,944	2517.7	− 2528	−10.3	× 143 / 576	−2.6
6	9,945	2539.2	− 2552	−12.8	× 149 / 576	−3.3
7	9,946	2538.4	− 2567	−28.6	× 140 / 576	−7
8	9,947	2563.2	− 2586	−22.8	× 144 / 576	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	9,921	2542.8	− 2528	14.8	× 142 / 541	3.9
6	9,922	2551.2	− 2552	−0.8	× 135 / 541	−0.2
7	9,923	2570.8	− 2567	3.8	× 132 / 541	0.9
8	9,924	2596.8	− 2586	10.8	× 132 / 541	2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −23, −17, −9, −4, −28, −27, −19, 7 → −17.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 17 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 26 → average 11.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.9 × 2.66 = 31.7. Upper limit 13.9, lower limit −49.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.