Clovis Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,119	2427.9	− 2436	−8.1	× 91 / 361	−2
4	10,120	2470.6	− 2485	−14.4	× 87 / 361	−3.5
5	10,123	2490.5	− 2528	−37.5	× 93 / 361	−9.7
6	10,125	2524.7	− 2552	−27.3	× 90 / 361	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,171	2459.3	− 2436	23.3	× 78 / 371	4.9
4	9,173	2470.5	− 2485	−14.5	× 99 / 371	−3.9
5	9,174	2494.4	− 2528	−33.6	× 84 / 371	−7.6
6	9,177	2498.5	− 2552	−53.5	× 110 / 371	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,480	2468.0	− 2436	32	× 89 / 382	7.5
4	9,483	2486.9	− 2485	1.9	× 87 / 382	0.4
5	9,485	2510.4	− 2528	−17.6	× 114 / 382	−5.3
6	9,486	2512.1	− 2552	−39.9	× 92 / 382	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,501	2448.2	− 2436	12.2	× 102 / 403	3.1
4	9,502	2496.6	− 2485	11.6	× 96 / 403	2.8
5	9,505	2526.1	− 2528	−1.9	× 90 / 403	−0.4
6	9,506	2539.3	− 2552	−12.7	× 115 / 403	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,577	2471.1	− 2436	35.1	× 101 / 397	8.9
4	9,578	2479.8	− 2485	−5.2	× 98 / 397	−1.3
5	9,579	2512.2	− 2528	−15.8	× 101 / 397	−4
6	9,580	2539.9	− 2552	−12.1	× 97 / 397	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,546	2451.7	− 2436	15.7	× 93 / 355	4.1
4	9,547	2477.1	− 2485	−7.9	× 91 / 355	−2
5	9,548	2521.1	− 2528	−6.9	× 73 / 355	−1.4
6	9,549	2508.5	− 2552	−43.5	× 98 / 355	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,522	2482.2	− 2436	46.2	× 97 / 364	12.3
4	9,523	2482.1	− 2485	−2.9	× 93 / 364	−0.7
5	9,524	2496.1	− 2528	−31.9	× 102 / 364	−8.9
6	9,525	2526.1	− 2552	−25.9	× 72 / 364	−5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,478	2465.0	− 2436	29	× 96 / 402	6.9
4	9,479	2504.4	− 2485	19.4	× 97 / 402	4.7
5	9,480	2488.2	− 2528	−39.8	× 104 / 402	−10.3
6	9,481	2510.5	− 2552	−41.5	× 105 / 402	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,459	2473.5	− 2436	37.5	× 101 / 406	9.3
4	9,460	2494.8	− 2485	9.8	× 105 / 406	2.5
5	9,461	2518.1	− 2528	−9.9	× 101 / 406	−2.5
6	9,462	2534.1	− 2552	−17.9	× 99 / 406	−4.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −22, −22, −7, 2, 1, −11, −2, −10, 5 → −7.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 0 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 15 → average 8.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.6 × 2.66 = 22.9. Upper limit 15.6, lower limit −30.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.