Clay Joint Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,706	2475.7	− 2436	39.7	× 25 / 164	6.1
4	9,708	2507.1	− 2485	22.1	× 29 / 164	3.9
5	9,710	2538.1	− 2528	10.1	× 28 / 164	1.7
6	9,713	2612.4	− 2552	60.4	× 28 / 164	10.3
7	9,714	2625.9	− 2567	58.9	× 27 / 164	9.7
8	9,717	2640.8	− 2586	54.8	× 27 / 164	9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						41

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,759	2511.4	− 2436	75.4	× 32 / 170	14.2
4	8,761	2539.7	− 2485	54.7	× 28 / 170	9
5	8,763	2568.8	− 2528	40.8	× 29 / 170	7
6	8,765	2590.4	− 2552	38.4	× 28 / 170	6.3
7	8,767	2652.3	− 2567	85.3	× 26 / 170	13
8	8,769	2643.6	− 2586	57.6	× 27 / 170	9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						59

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,047	2510.0	− 2436	74	× 27 / 169	11.8
4	9,048	2545.7	− 2485	60.7	× 30 / 169	10.8
5	9,051	2580.3	− 2528	52.3	× 27 / 169	8.4
6	9,053	2582.4	− 2552	30.4	× 30 / 169	5.4
7	9,054	2611.9	− 2567	44.9	× 27 / 169	7.2
8	9,057	2648.9	− 2586	62.9	× 28 / 169	10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,068	2495.9	− 2436	59.9	× 27 / 174	9.3
4	9,071	2529.2	− 2485	44.2	× 32 / 174	8.1
5	9,072	2587.7	− 2528	59.7	× 27 / 174	9.3
6	9,075	2573.7	− 2552	21.7	× 30 / 174	3.7
7	9,076	2599.8	− 2567	32.8	× 30 / 174	5.7
8	9,079	2625.7	− 2586	39.7	× 28 / 174	6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						42

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,145	2504.2	− 2436	68.2	× 27 / 177	10.4
4	9,146	2494.9	− 2485	9.9	× 29 / 177	1.6
5	9,147	2585.6	− 2528	57.6	× 32 / 177	10.4
6	9,148	2619.5	− 2552	67.5	× 29 / 177	11.1
7	9,149	2620.5	− 2567	53.5	× 30 / 177	9.1
8	9,150	2627.6	− 2586	41.6	× 30 / 177	7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						50

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,979	2541.4	− 2436	105.4	× 20 / 150	14.1
4	8,980	2502.6	− 2485	17.6	× 26 / 150	3.1
5	8,981	2546.0	− 2528	18	× 24 / 150	2.9
6	8,982	2589.9	− 2552	37.9	× 26 / 150	6.6
7	8,983	2637.3	− 2567	70.3	× 28 / 150	13.1
8	8,984	2678.9	− 2586	92.9	× 26 / 150	16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						56

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,094	2484.2	− 2436	48.2	× 26 / 179	7
4	9,095	2505.2	− 2485	20.2	× 30 / 179	3.4
5	9,096	2535.7	− 2528	7.7	× 32 / 179	1.4
6	9,097	2562.9	− 2552	10.9	× 28 / 179	1.7
7	9,098	2610.5	− 2567	43.5	× 31 / 179	7.5
8	9,099	2643.9	− 2586	57.9	× 32 / 179	10.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,076	2494.3	− 2436	58.3	× 27 / 175	9
4	9,077	2509.3	− 2485	24.3	× 30 / 175	4.2
5	9,078	2566.0	− 2528	38	× 30 / 175	6.5
6	9,079	2535.1	− 2552	−16.9	× 31 / 175	−3
7	9,080	2612.2	− 2567	45.2	× 27 / 175	7
8	9,081	2628.5	− 2586	42.5	× 30 / 175	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,026	2511.4	− 2436	75.4	× 26 / 170	11.5
4	9,027	2552.0	− 2485	67	× 28 / 170	11
5	9,028	2558.5	− 2528	30.5	× 31 / 170	5.6
6	9,029	2575.4	− 2552	23.4	× 29 / 170	4
7	9,030	2603.6	− 2567	36.6	× 28 / 170	6
8	9,031	2623.7	− 2586	37.7	× 28 / 170	6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						44

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,995	2481.6	− 2436	45.6	× 26 / 176	6.7
4	8,996	2544.3	− 2485	59.3	× 29 / 176	9.8
5	8,997	2607.1	− 2528	79.1	× 32 / 176	14.4
6	8,998	2593.9	− 2552	41.9	× 31 / 176	7.4
7	8,999	2636.5	− 2567	69.5	× 30 / 176	11.8
8	9,000	2622.9	− 2586	36.9	× 28 / 176	5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						56

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 41, 59, 54, 42, 50, 56, 31, 31, 44, 56 → 46.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 6 · 2021→2022: 25 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 12 → average 11
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11 × 2.66 = 29.3. Upper limit 75.7, lower limit 17.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Schools in Clay Joint Elementary

Clay Elementary