Pollock Pines Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,292	2418.5	− 2436	−17.5	× 72 / 447	−2.8
4	9,295	2435.7	− 2485	−49.3	× 88 / 447	−9.7
5	9,297	2467.7	− 2528	−60.3	× 75 / 447	−10.1
6	9,299	2487.2	− 2552	−64.8	× 69 / 447	−10
7	9,301	2529.6	− 2567	−37.4	× 68 / 447	−5.7
8	9,302	2557.8	− 2586	−28.2	× 75 / 447	−4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,358	2421.9	− 2436	−14.1	× 76 / 439	−2.4
4	8,361	2437.5	− 2485	−47.5	× 71 / 439	−7.7
5	8,363	2513.0	− 2528	−15	× 82 / 439	−2.8
6	8,364	2499.1	− 2552	−52.9	× 68 / 439	−8.2
7	8,366	2533.9	− 2567	−33.1	× 70 / 439	−5.3
8	8,369	2559.6	− 2586	−26.4	× 72 / 439	−4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,639	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 68 / 450	−4.2
4	8,640	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 71 / 450	−4.8
5	8,642	2501.3	− 2528	−26.7	× 75 / 450	−4.5
6	8,645	2518.1	− 2552	−33.9	× 84 / 450	−6.3
7	8,646	2504.0	− 2567	−63	× 74 / 450	−10.4
8	8,648	2524.4	− 2586	−61.6	× 78 / 450	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,663	2400.9	− 2436	−35.1	× 67 / 453	−5.2
4	8,664	2432.4	− 2485	−52.6	× 69 / 453	−8
5	8,667	2515.7	− 2528	−12.3	× 73 / 453	−2
6	8,668	2529.5	− 2552	−22.5	× 80 / 453	−4
7	8,671	2517.7	− 2567	−49.3	× 91 / 453	−9.9
8	8,672	2548.7	− 2586	−37.3	× 73 / 453	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,725	2419.1	− 2436	−16.9	× 66 / 441	−2.5
4	8,726	2440.4	− 2485	−44.6	× 66 / 441	−6.7
5	8,727	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 70 / 441	−8.9
6	8,728	2512.4	− 2552	−39.6	× 81 / 441	−7.3
7	8,729	2554.8	− 2567	−12.2	× 77 / 441	−2.1
8	8,730	2553.8	− 2586	−32.2	× 81 / 441	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,553	2422.7	− 2436	−13.3	× 65 / 379	−2.3
4	8,554	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 69 / 379	−5.5
5	8,555	2459.8	− 2528	−68.2	× 59 / 379	−10.6
6	8,556	2444.7	− 2552	−107.3	× 63 / 379	−17.8
7	8,557	2482.2	− 2567	−84.8	× 59 / 379	−13.2
8	8,558	2568.0	− 2586	−18	× 64 / 379	−3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,672	2422.3	− 2436	−13.7	× 61 / 403	−2.1
4	8,673	2456.2	− 2485	−28.8	× 62 / 403	−4.4
5	8,674	2479.1	− 2528	−48.9	× 78 / 403	−9.5
6	8,675	2498.2	− 2552	−53.8	× 64 / 403	−8.5
7	8,676	2462.9	− 2567	−104.1	× 65 / 403	−16.8
8	8,677	2496.4	− 2586	−89.6	× 73 / 403	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,650	2410.6	− 2436	−25.4	× 57 / 384	−3.8
4	8,651	2439.9	− 2485	−45.1	× 64 / 384	−7.5
5	8,652	2457.8	− 2528	−70.2	× 62 / 384	−11.3
6	8,653	2503.6	− 2552	−48.4	× 71 / 384	−8.9
7	8,654	2510.0	− 2567	−57	× 67 / 384	−9.9
8	8,655	2476.8	− 2586	−109.2	× 63 / 384	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,594	2403.2	− 2436	−32.8	× 60 / 362	−5.4
4	8,595	2457.5	− 2485	−27.5	× 60 / 362	−4.6
5	8,596	2421.7	− 2528	−106.3	× 58 / 362	−17
6	8,597	2469.4	− 2552	−82.6	× 56 / 362	−12.8
7	8,598	2530.1	− 2567	−36.9	× 70 / 362	−7.1
8	8,599	2511.8	− 2586	−74.2	× 58 / 362	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,557	2417.3	− 2436	−18.7	× 50 / 348	−2.7
4	8,558	2427.7	− 2485	−57.3	× 58 / 348	−9.6
5	8,559	2453.3	− 2528	−74.7	× 55 / 348	−11.8
6	8,560	2454.1	− 2552	−97.9	× 66 / 348	−18.6
7	8,561	2516.1	− 2567	−50.9	× 50 / 348	−7.3
8	8,562	2519.5	− 2586	−66.5	× 69 / 348	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −43, −31, −41, −35, −33, −53, −58, −59, −59, −63 → −47.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 20 · 2021→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 6.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.7 × 2.66 = 17.8. Upper limit −29.7, lower limit −65.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.