Verde Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,919	2340.7	− 2436	−95.3	× 47 / 163	−27.5
4	7,921	2402.9	− 2485	−82.1	× 46 / 163	−23.2
5	7,923	2420.6	− 2528	−107.4	× 39 / 163	−25.7
6	7,925	2465.0	− 2552	−87	× 31 / 163	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,102	2336.2	− 2436	−99.8	× 59 / 174	−33.8
4	7,105	2378.0	− 2485	−107	× 40 / 174	−24.6
5	7,106	2412.3	− 2528	−115.7	× 43 / 174	−28.6
6	7,108	2433.9	− 2552	−118.1	× 32 / 174	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,315	2356.7	− 2436	−79.3	× 47 / 190	−19.6
4	7,317	2381.6	− 2485	−103.4	× 57 / 190	−31
5	7,318	2380.0	− 2528	−148	× 42 / 190	−32.7
6	7,321	2440.2	− 2552	−111.8	× 44 / 190	−25.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,333	2379.2	− 2436	−56.8	× 45 / 170	−15
4	7,334	2374.2	− 2485	−110.8	× 45 / 170	−29.3
5	7,336	2389.5	− 2528	−138.5	× 47 / 170	−38.3
6	7,339	2419.5	− 2552	−132.5	× 33 / 170	−25.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,384	2361.0	− 2436	−75	× 36 / 194	−13.9
4	7,385	2393.4	− 2485	−91.6	× 47 / 194	−22.2
5	7,386	2402.5	− 2528	−125.5	× 40 / 194	−25.9
6	7,387	2418.1	− 2552	−133.9	× 42 / 194	−29
7	7,388	2415.1	− 2567	−151.9	× 29 / 194	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,330	2332.7	− 2436	−103.3	× 40 / 202	−20.5
4	7,331	2383.8	− 2485	−101.2	× 48 / 202	−24
5	7,332	2371.7	− 2528	−156.3	× 36 / 202	−27.9
6	7,333	2433.2	− 2552	−118.8	× 26 / 202	−15.3
7	7,334	2434.8	− 2567	−132.2	× 29 / 202	−19
8	7,335	2399.0	− 2586	−187	× 23 / 202	−21.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,318	2351.5	− 2436	−84.5	× 41 / 197	−17.6
4	7,319	2375.1	− 2485	−109.9	× 32 / 197	−17.9
5	7,320	2398.6	− 2528	−129.4	× 46 / 197	−30.2
6	7,321	2408.7	− 2552	−143.3	× 27 / 197	−19.6
7	7,322	2427.2	− 2567	−139.8	× 27 / 197	−19.2
8	7,323	2462.9	− 2586	−123.1	× 24 / 197	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−119

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,265	2304.1	− 2436	−131.9	× 43 / 232	−24.4
4	7,266	2353.9	− 2485	−131.1	× 41 / 232	−23.2
5	7,267	2361.5	− 2528	−166.5	× 41 / 232	−29.4
6	7,268	2413.2	− 2552	−138.8	× 54 / 232	−32.3
7	7,269	2398.9	− 2567	−168.1	× 27 / 232	−19.6
8	7,270	2454.0	− 2586	−132	× 26 / 232	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−144

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,225	2321.3	− 2436	−114.7	× 34 / 189	−20.6
4	7,226	2323.4	− 2485	−161.6	× 34 / 189	−29.1
5	7,227	2389.9	− 2528	−138.1	× 30 / 189	−21.9
6	7,228	2388.0	− 2552	−164	× 34 / 189	−29.5
7	7,229	2481.4	− 2567	−85.6	× 38 / 189	−17.2
8	7,230	2417.6	− 2586	−168.4	× 19 / 189	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−135

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −93, −109, −109, −108, −114, −128, −119, −144, −135 → −117.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 25 · 2024→2025: 9 → average 10
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10 × 2.66 = 26.6. Upper limit −91.1, lower limit −144.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.