Grant Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,711	2353.2	− 2436	−82.8	× 85 / 278	−25.3
4	7,712	2400.4	− 2485	−84.6	× 70 / 278	−21.3
5	7,715	2410.0	− 2528	−118	× 79 / 278	−33.5
6	7,716	2396.2	− 2552	−155.8	× 44 / 278	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,895	2383.5	− 2436	−52.5	× 80 / 270	−15.6
4	6,896	2406.8	− 2485	−78.2	× 65 / 270	−18.8
5	6,899	2408.8	− 2528	−119.2	× 59 / 270	−26
6	6,901	2397.8	− 2552	−154.2	× 66 / 270	−37.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,106	2390.1	− 2436	−45.9	× 65 / 256	−11.7
4	7,108	2379.1	− 2485	−105.9	× 79 / 256	−32.7
5	7,111	2397.5	− 2528	−130.5	× 61 / 256	−31.1
6	7,113	2391.8	− 2552	−160.2	× 51 / 256	−31.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,124	2356.0	− 2436	−80	× 73 / 267	−21.9
4	7,127	2378.6	− 2485	−106.4	× 71 / 267	−28.3
5	7,128	2402.0	− 2528	−126	× 68 / 267	−32.1
6	7,131	2389.3	− 2552	−162.7	× 55 / 267	−33.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,171	2362.1	− 2436	−73.9	× 68 / 273	−18.4
4	7,172	2381.2	− 2485	−103.8	× 69 / 273	−26.2
5	7,173	2396.9	− 2528	−131.1	× 65 / 273	−31.2
6	7,174	2438.0	− 2552	−114	× 71 / 273	−29.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,112	2337.0	− 2436	−99	× 69 / 264	−25.9
4	7,113	2347.1	− 2485	−137.9	× 71 / 264	−37.1
5	7,114	2370.5	− 2528	−157.5	× 62 / 264	−37
6	7,115	2393.9	− 2552	−158.1	× 62 / 264	−37.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−137

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,100	2324.5	− 2436	−111.5	× 86 / 286	−33.5
4	7,101	2370.8	− 2485	−114.2	× 74 / 286	−29.5
5	7,102	2382.2	− 2528	−145.8	× 64 / 286	−32.6
6	7,103	2405.9	− 2552	−146.1	× 62 / 286	−31.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,047	2316.6	− 2436	−119.4	× 80 / 307	−31.1
4	7,048	2342.0	− 2485	−143	× 88 / 307	−41
5	7,049	2382.6	− 2528	−145.4	× 69 / 307	−32.7
6	7,050	2377.1	− 2552	−174.9	× 70 / 307	−39.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−145

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,007	2329.0	− 2436	−107	× 89 / 287	−33.2
4	7,008	2343.6	− 2485	−141.4	× 78 / 287	−38.4
5	7,009	2359.2	− 2528	−168.8	× 77 / 287	−45.3
6	7,010	2384.7	− 2552	−167.3	× 43 / 287	−25.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−142

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −105, −98, −107, −116, −106, −137, −127, −145, −142 → −120.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 31 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 18 · 2024→2025: 3 → average 12.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.1 × 2.66 = 32.2. Upper limit −88.1, lower limit −152.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.