Ellerhorst Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,671	2389.4	− 2436	−46.6	× 53 / 225	−11
4	7,672	2455.2	− 2485	−29.8	× 58 / 225	−7.7
5	7,675	2473.3	− 2528	−54.7	× 54 / 225	−13.1
6	7,676	2506.9	− 2552	−45.1	× 60 / 225	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,854	2422.8	− 2436	−13.2	× 53 / 217	−3.2
4	6,856	2453.3	− 2485	−31.7	× 56 / 217	−8.2
5	6,859	2484.4	− 2528	−43.6	× 57 / 217	−11.5
6	6,861	2502.2	− 2552	−49.8	× 51 / 217	−11.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,066	2405.1	− 2436	−30.9	× 48 / 211	−7
4	7,068	2425.9	− 2485	−59.1	× 56 / 211	−15.7
5	7,071	2464.3	− 2528	−63.7	× 52 / 211	−15.7
6	7,073	2495.9	− 2552	−56.1	× 55 / 211	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,084	2411.3	− 2436	−24.7	× 51 / 202	−6.2
4	7,086	2435.6	− 2485	−49.4	× 45 / 202	−11
5	7,088	2460.6	− 2528	−67.4	× 58 / 202	−19.4
6	7,090	2495.3	− 2552	−56.7	× 48 / 202	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,131	2404.8	− 2436	−31.2	× 58 / 207	−8.7
4	7,132	2432.1	− 2485	−52.9	× 50 / 207	−12.8
5	7,133	2459.6	− 2528	−68.4	× 44 / 207	−14.5
6	7,134	2487.9	− 2552	−64.1	× 55 / 207	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,072	2407.6	− 2436	−28.4	× 45 / 186	−6.9
4	7,073	2447.1	− 2485	−37.9	× 46 / 186	−9.4
5	7,074	2436.7	− 2528	−91.3	× 42 / 186	−20.6
6	7,075	2474.5	− 2552	−77.5	× 53 / 186	−22.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,060	2433.7	− 2436	−2.3	× 46 / 186	−0.6
4	7,061	2461.3	− 2485	−23.7	× 47 / 186	−6
5	7,062	2440.4	− 2528	−87.6	× 45 / 186	−21.2
6	7,063	2463.7	− 2552	−88.3	× 48 / 186	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,007	2399.4	− 2436	−36.6	× 46 / 178	−9.5
4	7,008	2484.9	− 2485	−0.1	× 44 / 178	0
5	7,009	2471.9	− 2528	−56.1	× 44 / 178	−13.9
6	7,010	2467.8	− 2552	−84.2	× 44 / 178	−20.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,967	2430.3	− 2436	−5.7	× 47 / 177	−1.5
4	6,968	2454.5	− 2485	−30.5	× 44 / 177	−7.6
5	6,969	2499.3	− 2528	−28.7	× 45 / 177	−7.3
6	6,970	2500.0	− 2552	−52	× 41 / 177	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −44, −35, −53, −50, −53, −59, −51, −44, −28 → −46.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 18 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 8.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.8 × 2.66 = 23.4. Upper limit −22.9, lower limit −69.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.