Edward M. Downer Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,948	2370.6	− 2436	−65.4	× 94 / 358	−17.2
4	7,951	2406.9	− 2485	−78.1	× 105 / 358	−22.9
5	7,952	2466.0	− 2528	−62	× 88 / 358	−15.2
6	7,955	2447.5	− 2552	−104.5	× 71 / 358	−20.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,133	2366.3	− 2436	−69.7	× 97 / 352	−19.2
4	7,135	2395.0	− 2485	−90	× 86 / 352	−22
5	7,136	2441.6	− 2528	−86.4	× 87 / 352	−21.4
6	7,138	2486.4	− 2552	−65.6	× 82 / 352	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,345	2361.4	− 2436	−74.6	× 82 / 333	−18.4
4	7,347	2406.2	− 2485	−78.8	× 95 / 333	−22.5
5	7,349	2456.7	− 2528	−71.3	× 77 / 333	−16.5
6	7,350	2480.2	− 2552	−71.8	× 79 / 333	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,363	2349.2	− 2436	−86.8	× 77 / 323	−20.7
4	7,364	2398.2	− 2485	−86.8	× 86 / 323	−23.1
5	7,367	2457.9	− 2528	−70.1	× 85 / 323	−18.4
6	7,368	2479.7	− 2552	−72.3	× 75 / 323	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,415	2371.2	− 2436	−64.8	× 99 / 331	−19.4
4	7,416	2392.8	− 2485	−92.2	× 75 / 331	−20.9
5	7,417	2422.5	− 2528	−105.5	× 74 / 331	−23.6
6	7,418	2473.1	− 2552	−78.9	× 83 / 331	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,362	2367.7	− 2436	−68.3	× 63 / 306	−14.1
4	7,363	2394.9	− 2485	−90.1	× 88 / 306	−25.9
5	7,364	2369.0	− 2528	−159	× 78 / 306	−40.5
6	7,365	2434.2	− 2552	−117.8	× 77 / 306	−29.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,350	2344.7	− 2436	−91.3	× 50 / 261	−17.5
4	7,351	2419.3	− 2485	−65.7	× 61 / 261	−15.4
5	7,352	2387.6	− 2528	−140.4	× 76 / 261	−40.9
6	7,353	2395.2	− 2552	−156.8	× 74 / 261	−44.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−118

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,297	2342.9	− 2436	−93.1	× 48 / 241	−18.5
4	7,298	2380.3	− 2485	−104.7	× 60 / 241	−26.1
5	7,299	2389.9	− 2528	−138.1	× 63 / 241	−36.1
6	7,300	2456.0	− 2552	−96	× 70 / 241	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,257	2366.6	− 2436	−69.4	× 71 / 248	−19.9
4	7,258	2354.1	− 2485	−130.9	× 55 / 248	−29
5	7,259	2389.9	− 2528	−138.1	× 59 / 248	−32.9
6	7,260	2435.0	− 2552	−117	× 63 / 248	−29.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−111

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −76, −78, −74, −79, −84, −110, −118, −109, −111 → −93.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 7.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.6 × 2.66 = 20.2. Upper limit −73, lower limit −113.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.