Coronado Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,651	2385.1	− 2436	−50.9	× 64 / 214	−15.2
4	7,652	2421.0	− 2485	−64	× 56 / 214	−16.7
5	7,655	2446.1	− 2528	−81.9	× 52 / 214	−19.9
6	7,656	2496.4	− 2552	−55.6	× 42 / 214	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,834	2360.4	− 2436	−75.6	× 73 / 232	−23.8
4	6,837	2418.8	− 2485	−66.2	× 63 / 232	−18
5	6,839	2437.6	− 2528	−90.4	× 53 / 232	−20.7
6	6,840	2515.0	− 2552	−37	× 43 / 232	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,047	2367.3	− 2436	−68.7	× 62 / 258	−16.5
4	7,049	2362.5	− 2485	−122.5	× 82 / 258	−38.9
5	7,050	2403.2	− 2528	−124.8	× 58 / 258	−28.1
6	7,052	2489.0	− 2552	−63	× 56 / 258	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,064	2347.4	− 2436	−88.6	× 47 / 227	−18.3
4	7,067	2374.8	− 2485	−110.2	× 60 / 227	−29.1
5	7,068	2362.1	− 2528	−165.9	× 70 / 227	−51.2
6	7,071	2406.2	− 2552	−145.8	× 50 / 227	−32.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−131

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,111	2372.4	− 2436	−63.6	× 60 / 223	−17.1
4	7,112	2353.9	− 2485	−131.1	× 50 / 223	−29.4
5	7,113	2410.6	− 2528	−117.4	× 58 / 223	−30.5
6	7,114	2398.8	− 2552	−153.2	× 55 / 223	−37.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,052	2349.4	− 2436	−86.6	× 59 / 202	−25.3
4	7,053	2352.4	− 2485	−132.6	× 47 / 202	−30.9
5	7,054	2394.4	− 2528	−133.6	× 51 / 202	−33.7
6	7,055	2383.8	− 2552	−168.2	× 45 / 202	−37.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−127

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,040	2325.3	− 2436	−110.7	× 42 / 173	−26.9
4	7,041	2380.2	− 2485	−104.8	× 54 / 173	−32.7
5	7,042	2383.2	− 2528	−144.8	× 41 / 173	−34.3
6	7,043	2442.0	− 2552	−110	× 36 / 173	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−117

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,987	2336.3	− 2436	−99.7	× 44 / 161	−27.2
4	6,988	2342.6	− 2485	−142.4	× 41 / 161	−36.3
5	6,989	2391.9	− 2528	−136.1	× 47 / 161	−39.7
6	6,990	2427.2	− 2552	−124.8	× 29 / 161	−22.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,947	2369.7	− 2436	−66.3	× 43 / 175	−16.3
4	6,948	2352.0	− 2485	−133	× 48 / 175	−36.5
5	6,949	2379.2	− 2528	−148.8	× 40 / 175	−34
6	6,950	2413.7	− 2552	−138.3	× 44 / 175	−34.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −69, −97, −131, −115, −127, −117, −126, −122 → −107.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 28 · 2017→2018: 34 · 2018→2019: 16 · 2019→2022: 12 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 4 → average 14.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.9 × 2.66 = 39.6. Upper limit −67.8, lower limit −147.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.