Bayview Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,630	2385.3	− 2436	−50.7	× 102 / 356	−14.5
4	7,632	2404.3	− 2485	−80.7	× 88 / 356	−19.9
5	7,634	2419.9	− 2528	−108.1	× 85 / 356	−25.8
6	7,636	2440.2	− 2552	−111.8	× 81 / 356	−25.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,815	2371.9	− 2436	−64.1	× 89 / 323	−17.7
4	6,817	2405.6	− 2485	−79.4	× 85 / 323	−20.9
5	6,818	2416.8	− 2528	−111.2	× 78 / 323	−26.9
6	6,820	2436.9	− 2552	−115.1	× 71 / 323	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−91

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,027	2361.8	− 2436	−74.2	× 89 / 321	−20.6
4	7,029	2400.8	− 2485	−84.2	× 80 / 321	−21
5	7,030	2401.5	− 2528	−126.5	× 77 / 321	−30.3
6	7,032	2430.9	− 2552	−121.1	× 75 / 321	−28.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,044	2353.8	− 2436	−82.2	× 75 / 296	−20.8
4	7,046	2412.0	− 2485	−73	× 79 / 296	−19.5
5	7,048	2387.2	− 2528	−140.8	× 78 / 296	−37.1
6	7,050	2447.1	− 2552	−104.9	× 64 / 296	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,091	2337.5	− 2436	−98.5	× 67 / 271	−24.4
4	7,092	2372.5	− 2485	−112.5	× 75 / 271	−31.1
5	7,093	2406.4	− 2528	−121.6	× 65 / 271	−29.2
6	7,094	2404.3	− 2552	−147.7	× 64 / 271	−34.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−120

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,032	2363.6	− 2436	−72.4	× 56 / 207	−19.6
4	7,033	2372.4	− 2485	−112.6	× 58 / 207	−31.5
5	7,034	2357.8	− 2528	−170.2	× 44 / 207	−36.2
6	7,035	2370.8	− 2552	−181.2	× 49 / 207	−42.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−130

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,020	2369.1	− 2436	−66.9	× 47 / 173	−18.2
4	7,021	2355.9	− 2485	−129.1	× 48 / 173	−35.8
5	7,022	2391.0	− 2528	−137	× 41 / 173	−32.5
6	7,023	2356.1	− 2552	−195.9	× 37 / 173	−41.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,967	2350.8	− 2436	−85.2	× 31 / 183	−14.4
4	6,968	2397.0	− 2485	−88	× 59 / 183	−28.4
5	6,969	2360.7	− 2528	−167.3	× 45 / 183	−41.1
6	6,970	2401.2	− 2552	−150.8	× 48 / 183	−39.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,927	2324.4	− 2436	−111.6	× 25 / 158	−17.7
4	6,928	2381.3	− 2485	−103.7	× 35 / 158	−23
5	6,929	2411.8	− 2528	−116.2	× 49 / 158	−36
6	6,930	2403.4	− 2552	−148.6	× 49 / 158	−46.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −86, −91, −100, −100, −120, −130, −128, −123, −123 → −111.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 9 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 0 → average 6.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.4 × 2.66 = 17. Upper limit −94.2, lower limit −128.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.