Copperopolis Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,476	2424.7	− 2436	−11.3	× 43 / 145	−3.4
4	5,478	2461.1	− 2485	−23.9	× 40 / 145	−6.6
5	5,480	2499.8	− 2528	−28.2	× 31 / 145	−6
6	5,481	2518.6	− 2552	−33.4	× 31 / 145	−7.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,938	2443.9	− 2436	7.9	× 45 / 155	2.3
4	4,940	2464.3	− 2485	−20.7	× 46 / 155	−6.1
5	4,943	2473.1	− 2528	−54.9	× 39 / 155	−13.8
6	4,945	2532.5	− 2552	−19.5	× 25 / 155	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,033	2419.6	− 2436	−16.4	× 34 / 158	−3.5
4	5,034	2465.2	− 2485	−19.8	× 43 / 158	−5.4
5	5,037	2465.6	− 2528	−62.4	× 40 / 158	−15.8
6	5,039	2516.7	− 2552	−35.3	× 41 / 158	−9.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,020	2389.5	− 2436	−46.5	× 30 / 132	−10.6
4	5,023	2465.4	− 2485	−19.6	× 28 / 132	−4.2
5	5,025	2469.4	− 2528	−58.6	× 36 / 132	−16
6	5,027	2479.0	− 2552	−73	× 38 / 132	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,057	2417.7	− 2436	−18.3	× 39 / 135	−5.3
4	5,058	2441.3	− 2485	−43.7	× 29 / 135	−9.4
5	5,059	2478.1	− 2528	−49.9	× 32 / 135	−11.8
6	5,060	2496.6	− 2552	−55.4	× 35 / 135	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,898	2407.8	− 2436	−28.2	× 28 / 135	−5.8
4	4,899	2414.3	− 2485	−70.7	× 31 / 135	−16.2
5	4,900	2465.4	− 2528	−62.6	× 45 / 135	−20.9
6	4,901	2448.0	− 2552	−104	× 31 / 135	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,892	2386.4	− 2436	−49.6	× 32 / 125	−12.7
4	4,893	2420.9	− 2485	−64.1	× 28 / 125	−14.4
5	4,894	2399.3	− 2528	−128.7	× 26 / 125	−26.8
6	4,895	2464.9	− 2552	−87.1	× 39 / 125	−27.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,847	2431.5	− 2436	−4.5	× 27 / 109	−1.1
4	4,848	2416.9	− 2485	−68.1	× 33 / 109	−20.6
5	4,849	2426.1	− 2528	−101.9	× 26 / 109	−24.3
6	4,850	2440.3	− 2552	−111.7	× 23 / 109	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,809	2404.1	− 2436	−31.9	× 25 / 114	−7
4	4,810	2477.2	− 2485	−7.8	× 30 / 114	−2.1
5	4,811	2444.3	− 2528	−83.7	× 33 / 114	−24.2
6	4,812	2463.5	− 2552	−88.5	× 26 / 114	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −23, −21, −34, −52, −41, −67, −81, −70, −53 → −49.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 18 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 17 → average 14
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14 × 2.66 = 37.2. Upper limit −11.9, lower limit −86.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.