Urban Promise Academy: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	3,172	2472.0	− 2552	−80	× 108 / 319	−27.1
7	3,174	2503.0	− 2567	−64	× 105 / 319	−21.1
8	3,176	2511.8	− 2586	−74.2	× 106 / 319	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,882	2460.3	− 2552	−91.7	× 121 / 365	−30.4
7	2,885	2442.2	− 2567	−124.8	× 120 / 365	−41
8	2,887	2481.9	− 2586	−104.1	× 124 / 365	−35.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,957	2417.0	− 2552	−135	× 122 / 369	−44.6
7	2,959	2471.3	− 2567	−95.7	× 125 / 369	−32.4
8	2,960	2431.1	− 2586	−154.9	× 122 / 369	−51.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−128

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,958	2468.8	− 2552	−83.2	× 125 / 374	−27.8
7	2,960	2440.3	− 2567	−126.7	× 125 / 374	−42.3
8	2,962	2505.4	− 2586	−80.6	× 124 / 374	−26.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,982	2479.0	− 2552	−73	× 126 / 374	−24.6
7	2,983	2466.4	− 2567	−100.6	× 123 / 374	−33.1
8	2,984	2494.1	− 2586	−91.9	× 125 / 374	−30.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,880	2457.0	− 2552	−95	× 117 / 357	−31.1
7	2,881	2453.1	− 2567	−113.9	× 118 / 357	−37.6
8	2,882	2455.2	− 2586	−130.8	× 122 / 357	−44.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,814	2429.8	− 2552	−122.2	× 120 / 358	−41
7	2,815	2457.0	− 2567	−110	× 121 / 358	−37.2
8	2,816	2447.7	− 2586	−138.3	× 117 / 358	−45.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,778	2424.9	− 2552	−127.1	× 124 / 368	−42.8
7	2,779	2430.9	− 2567	−136.1	× 118 / 368	−43.6
8	2,780	2451.2	− 2586	−134.8	× 126 / 368	−46.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−133

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	2,746	2400.7	− 2552	−151.3	× 131 / 394	−50.3
7	2,747	2435.0	− 2567	−132	× 131 / 394	−43.9
8	2,748	2436.2	− 2586	−149.8	× 132 / 394	−50.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−144

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −73, −107, −128, −97, −88, −113, −123, −133, −144 → −111.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 34 · 2016→2017: 21 · 2017→2018: 31 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 25 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 10 · 2024→2025: 11 → average 18.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 18.9 × 2.66 = 50.3. Upper limit −61.5, lower limit −162.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.