Hayfork Valley Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,964	2395.0	− 2432	−37	× 19 / 130	−5.4
4	99,967	2456.8	− 2473	−16.2	× 21 / 130	−2.6
5	99,968	2471.8	− 2502	−30.2	× 24 / 130	−5.6
6	99,971	2456.8	− 2531	−74.2	× 23 / 130	−13.1
7	99,972	2558.2	− 2552	6.2	× 25 / 130	1.2
8	99,975	2541.1	− 2567	−25.9	× 18 / 130	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−29

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,693	2396.1	− 2432	−35.9	× 27 / 134	−7.2
4	92,695	2457.5	− 2473	−15.5	× 21 / 134	−2.4
5	92,696	2475.1	− 2502	−26.9	× 21 / 134	−4.2
6	92,699	2526.7	− 2531	−4.3	× 23 / 134	−0.7
7	92,700	2529.6	− 2552	−22.4	× 23 / 134	−3.8
8	92,702	2573.8	− 2567	6.8	× 19 / 134	1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,459	2403.1	− 2432	−28.9	× 22 / 132	−4.8
4	95,460	2440.2	− 2473	−32.8	× 26 / 132	−6.5
5	95,462	2484.0	− 2502	−18	× 20 / 132	−2.7
6	95,465	2532.6	− 2531	1.6	× 20 / 132	0.2
7	95,467	2576.3	− 2552	24.3	× 20 / 132	3.7
8	95,468	2540.3	− 2567	−26.7	× 24 / 132	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,632	2418.8	− 2432	−13.2	× 13 / 126	−1.4
4	95,635	2381.5	− 2473	−91.5	× 28 / 126	−20.3
5	95,636	2466.5	− 2502	−35.5	× 26 / 126	−7.3
6	95,639	2488.0	− 2531	−43	× 18 / 126	−6.1
7	95,640	2541.3	− 2552	−10.7	× 21 / 126	−1.8
8	95,643	2562.8	− 2567	−4.2	× 20 / 126	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,309	2406.0	− 2432	−26	× 16 / 122	−3.4
4	96,310	2487.0	− 2473	14	× 12 / 122	1.4
5	96,311	2448.6	− 2502	−53.4	× 27 / 122	−11.8
6	96,312	2520.1	− 2531	−10.9	× 30 / 122	−2.7
7	96,313	2575.2	− 2552	23.2	× 16 / 122	3
8	96,314	2586.9	− 2567	19.9	× 21 / 122	3.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	94,214	2394.5	− 2432	−37.5	× 24 / 102	−8.8
4	94,215	2448.3	− 2473	−24.7	× 19 / 102	−4.6
5	94,216	2444.2	− 2502	−57.8	× 18 / 102	−10.2
6	94,217	2554.6	− 2531	23.6	× 17 / 102	3.9
8	94,219	2601.0	− 2567	34	× 24 / 102	8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,483	2458.2	− 2432	26.2	× 21 / 122	4.5
4	96,484	2440.0	− 2473	−33	× 23 / 122	−6.2
5	96,485	2501.7	− 2502	−0.3	× 19 / 122	0
6	96,486	2493.3	− 2531	−37.7	× 19 / 122	−5.9
7	96,487	2635.7	− 2552	83.7	× 18 / 122	12.3
8	96,488	2577.9	− 2567	10.9	× 22 / 122	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,322	2442.9	− 2432	10.9	× 24 / 130	2
4	96,323	2448.7	− 2473	−24.3	× 23 / 130	−4.3
5	96,324	2518.7	− 2502	16.7	× 24 / 130	3.1
6	96,325	2548.5	− 2531	17.5	× 19 / 130	2.6
7	96,326	2557.4	− 2552	5.4	× 19 / 130	0.8
8	96,327	2633.4	− 2567	66.4	× 21 / 130	10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,198	2447.0	− 2432	15	× 30 / 139	3.2
4	96,199	2458.7	− 2473	−14.3	× 24 / 139	−2.5
5	96,200	2524.7	− 2502	22.7	× 25 / 139	4.1
6	96,201	2540.3	− 2531	9.3	× 23 / 139	1.5
7	96,202	2598.6	− 2552	46.6	× 19 / 139	6.4
8	96,203	2574.0	− 2567	7	× 18 / 139	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,944	2394.9	− 2432	−37.1	× 28 / 153	−6.8
4	95,945	2466.4	− 2473	−6.6	× 28 / 153	−1.2
5	95,946	2515.4	− 2502	13.4	× 28 / 153	2.5
6	95,947	2533.4	− 2531	2.4	× 28 / 153	0.4
7	95,948	2563.0	− 2552	11	× 21 / 153	1.5
8	95,949	2625.5	− 2567	58.5	× 20 / 153	7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −29, −17, −15, −38, −10, −12, 7, 15, 14, 4 → −8.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 23 · 2018→2019: 28 · 2019→2021: 2 · 2021→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 10 → average 11.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.7 × 2.66 = 31.1. Upper limit 23, lower limit −39.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.