Walter White Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,430	2366.0	− 2432	−66	× 92 / 409	−14.8
4	96,433	2405.3	− 2473	−67.7	× 107 / 409	−17.7
5	96,434	2430.8	− 2502	−71.2	× 92 / 409	−16
6	96,436	2483.6	− 2531	−47.4	× 118 / 409	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,470	2362.2	− 2432	−69.8	× 102 / 415	−17.2
4	89,472	2394.4	− 2473	−78.6	× 107 / 415	−20.3
5	89,474	2468.3	− 2502	−33.7	× 110 / 415	−8.9
6	89,477	2490.7	− 2531	−40.3	× 96 / 415	−9.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,077	2352.9	− 2432	−79.1	× 91 / 391	−18.4
4	92,079	2387.4	− 2473	−85.6	× 88 / 391	−19.3
5	92,080	2438.7	− 2502	−63.3	× 99 / 391	−16
6	92,083	2483.3	− 2531	−47.7	× 113 / 391	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,278	2379.9	− 2432	−52.1	× 80 / 383	−10.9
4	92,280	2420.2	− 2473	−52.8	× 87 / 383	−12
5	92,282	2437.5	− 2502	−64.5	× 100 / 383	−16.8
6	92,284	2490.9	− 2531	−40.1	× 116 / 383	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,918	2378.0	− 2432	−54	× 63 / 298	−11.4
4	92,919	2402.2	− 2473	−70.8	× 61 / 298	−14.5
5	92,920	2453.7	− 2502	−48.3	× 78 / 298	−12.6
6	92,921	2467.8	− 2531	−63.2	× 96 / 298	−20.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,155	2341.4	− 2432	−90.6	× 71 / 239	−26.9
4	93,156	2372.2	− 2473	−100.8	× 61 / 239	−25.7
5	93,157	2436.4	− 2502	−65.6	× 55 / 239	−15.1
6	93,158	2462.7	− 2531	−68.3	× 52 / 239	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,055	2337.2	− 2432	−94.8	× 57 / 233	−23.2
4	93,056	2369.1	− 2473	−103.9	× 61 / 233	−27.2
5	93,057	2419.0	− 2502	−83	× 61 / 233	−21.7
6	93,058	2493.3	− 2531	−37.7	× 54 / 233	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,938	2322.9	− 2432	−109.1	× 70 / 258	−29.6
4	92,939	2335.3	− 2473	−137.7	× 61 / 258	−32.6
5	92,940	2390.6	− 2502	−111.4	× 60 / 258	−25.9
6	92,941	2464.3	− 2531	−66.7	× 67 / 258	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,670	2339.4	− 2432	−92.6	× 65 / 264	−22.8
4	92,671	2349.6	− 2473	−123.4	× 72 / 264	−33.7
5	92,672	2365.4	− 2502	−136.6	× 66 / 264	−34.2
6	92,673	2459.0	− 2531	−72	× 61 / 264	−16.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−107

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −62, −56, −67, −52, −59, −83, −81, −105, −107 → −74.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2022: 24 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 24 · 2024→2025: 2 → average 11.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.4 × 2.66 = 30.3. Upper limit −44.4, lower limit −105.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.