J. X. Wilson Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,845	2411.4	− 2432	−20.6	× 76 / 295	−5.3
4	95,847	2464.2	− 2473	−8.8	× 74 / 295	−2.2
5	95,849	2496.6	− 2502	−5.4	× 84 / 295	−1.5
6	95,851	2528.4	− 2531	−2.6	× 61 / 295	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,946	2400.1	− 2432	−31.9	× 83 / 303	−8.7
4	88,947	2480.8	− 2473	7.8	× 72 / 303	1.9
5	88,950	2494.4	− 2502	−7.6	× 72 / 303	−1.8
6	88,952	2528.8	− 2531	−2.2	× 76 / 303	−0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,503	2428.8	− 2432	−3.2	× 92 / 298	−1
4	91,505	2455.7	− 2473	−17.3	× 77 / 298	−4.5
5	91,506	2512.0	− 2502	10	× 65 / 298	2.2
6	91,508	2540.5	− 2531	9.5	× 64 / 298	2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,702	2430.4	− 2432	−1.6	× 67 / 293	−0.4
4	91,703	2470.5	− 2473	−2.5	× 90 / 293	−0.8
5	91,706	2480.6	− 2502	−21.4	× 77 / 293	−5.6
6	91,707	2551.2	− 2531	20.2	× 59 / 293	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,341	2439.1	− 2432	7.1	× 63 / 276	1.6
4	92,342	2462.3	− 2473	−10.7	× 72 / 276	−2.8
5	92,343	2524.5	− 2502	22.5	× 82 / 276	6.7
6	92,344	2546.2	− 2531	15.2	× 59 / 276	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						9

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,599	2421.4	− 2432	−10.6	× 58 / 232	−2.7
4	92,600	2456.6	− 2473	−16.4	× 48 / 232	−3.4
5	92,601	2489.4	− 2502	−12.6	× 63 / 232	−3.4
6	92,602	2574.8	− 2531	43.8	× 63 / 232	11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,505	2382.4	− 2432	−49.6	× 56 / 203	−13.7
4	92,506	2463.8	− 2473	−9.2	× 54 / 203	−2.4
5	92,507	2487.8	− 2502	−14.2	× 44 / 203	−3.1
6	92,508	2530.5	− 2531	−0.5	× 49 / 203	−0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,400	2380.2	− 2432	−51.8	× 41 / 180	−11.8
4	92,401	2425.9	− 2473	−47.1	× 55 / 180	−14.4
5	92,402	2499.8	− 2502	−2.2	× 53 / 180	−0.6
6	92,403	2555.5	− 2531	24.5	× 31 / 180	4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,124	2432.9	− 2432	0.9	× 36 / 171	0.2
4	92,125	2434.0	− 2473	−39	× 42 / 171	−9.6
5	92,126	2478.3	− 2502	−23.7	× 55 / 171	−7.6
6	92,127	2547.8	− 2531	16.8	× 38 / 171	3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −10, −9, −1, −3, 9, 2, −19, −23, −13 → −7.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 21 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 10 → average 8.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.1 × 2.66 = 21.5. Upper limit 14.1, lower limit −28.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.