Abraham Lincoln Elementary: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,170	2328.0	− 2432	−104	× 51 / 185	−28.7
4	95,173	2397.7	− 2473	−75.3	× 39 / 185	−15.9
5	95,174	2425.4	− 2502	−76.6	× 60 / 185	−24.8
6	95,176	2460.1	− 2531	−70.9	× 35 / 185	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,395	2360.4	− 2432	−71.6	× 45 / 195	−16.5
4	88,398	2371.1	− 2473	−101.9	× 47 / 195	−24.6
5	88,400	2400.3	− 2502	−101.7	× 45 / 195	−23.5
6	88,401	2460.3	− 2531	−70.7	× 58 / 195	−21
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	90,955	2348.5	− 2432	−83.5	× 39 / 162	−20.1
4	90,957	2418.4	− 2473	−54.6	× 34 / 162	−11.5
5	90,959	2409.9	− 2502	−92.1	× 49 / 162	−27.9
6	90,960	2438.3	− 2531	−92.7	× 40 / 162	−22.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,805	2322.3	− 2432	−109.7	× 30 / 135	−24.4
4	91,806	2360.3	− 2473	−112.7	× 35 / 135	−29.2
5	91,807	2426.7	− 2502	−75.3	× 41 / 135	−22.9
6	91,808	2456.8	− 2531	−74.2	× 29 / 135	−15.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,051	2323.0	− 2432	−109	× 28 / 124	−24.6
4	92,052	2370.1	− 2473	−102.9	× 35 / 124	−29
5	92,053	2408.4	− 2502	−93.6	× 37 / 124	−27.9
6	92,054	2420.3	− 2531	−110.7	× 24 / 124	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−103

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,963	2309.7	− 2432	−122.3	× 33 / 138	−29.2
4	91,964	2348.2	− 2473	−124.8	× 33 / 138	−29.8
5	91,965	2406.6	− 2502	−95.4	× 36 / 138	−24.9
6	91,966	2448.0	− 2531	−83	× 36 / 138	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−106

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,892	2316.2	− 2432	−115.8	× 38 / 133	−33.1
4	91,893	2362.5	− 2473	−110.5	× 28 / 133	−23.3
5	91,894	2381.8	− 2502	−120.2	× 32 / 133	−28.9
6	91,895	2440.2	− 2531	−90.8	× 35 / 133	−23.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−109

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,602	2319.2	− 2432	−112.8	× 36 / 142	−28.6
4	91,603	2328.7	− 2473	−144.3	× 39 / 142	−39.6
5	91,604	2380.2	− 2502	−121.8	× 31 / 142	−26.6
6	91,605	2410.3	− 2531	−120.7	× 36 / 142	−30.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−125

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −83, −86, −82, −92, −103, −106, −109, −125 → −98.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2019: 10 · 2019→2022: 11 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 16 → average 7.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.1 × 2.66 = 18.9. Upper limit −79.4, lower limit −117.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.