Shasta Lake: english

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,755	2419.6	− 2432	−12.4	× 50 / 462	−1.3
4	91,756	2452.0	− 2473	−21	× 71 / 462	−3.2
5	91,759	2473.7	− 2502	−28.3	× 53 / 462	−3.2
6	91,760	2473.6	− 2531	−57.4	× 94 / 462	−11.7
7	91,762	2505.1	− 2552	−46.9	× 96 / 462	−9.7
8	91,765	2545.8	− 2567	−21.2	× 98 / 462	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	85,187	2419.6	− 2432	−12.4	× 50 / 441	−1.4
4	85,189	2460.6	− 2473	−12.4	× 51 / 441	−1.4
5	85,190	2474.2	− 2502	−27.8	× 69 / 441	−4.3
6	85,192	2467.6	− 2531	−63.4	× 82 / 441	−11.8
7	85,195	2519.5	− 2552	−32.5	× 91 / 441	−6.7
8	85,196	2505.2	− 2567	−61.8	× 98 / 441	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,570	2398.2	− 2432	−33.8	× 67 / 467	−4.8
4	87,571	2451.1	− 2473	−21.9	× 53 / 467	−2.5
5	87,574	2462.0	− 2502	−40	× 63 / 467	−5.4
6	87,576	2445.9	− 2531	−85.1	× 109 / 467	−19.9
7	87,577	2488.3	− 2552	−63.7	× 86 / 467	−11.7
8	87,580	2535.2	− 2567	−31.8	× 89 / 467	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	87,822	2417.3	− 2432	−14.7	× 50 / 474	−1.6
4	87,825	2455.3	− 2473	−17.7	× 70 / 474	−2.6
5	87,826	2467.9	− 2502	−34.1	× 56 / 474	−4
6	87,829	2462.8	− 2531	−68.2	× 100 / 474	−14.4
7	87,830	2491.2	− 2552	−60.8	× 108 / 474	−13.9
8	87,833	2510.1	− 2567	−56.9	× 90 / 474	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,441	2418.3	− 2432	−13.7	× 45 / 445	−1.4
4	88,442	2471.5	− 2473	−1.5	× 46 / 445	−0.2
5	88,443	2461.6	− 2502	−40.4	× 65 / 445	−5.9
6	88,444	2469.8	− 2531	−61.2	× 91 / 445	−12.5
7	88,445	2498.4	− 2552	−53.6	× 96 / 445	−11.6
8	88,446	2510.2	− 2567	−56.8	× 102 / 445	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	86,623	2421.0	− 2432	−11	× 40 / 383	−1.1
4	86,624	2401.1	− 2473	−71.9	× 50 / 383	−9.4
5	86,625	2445.4	− 2502	−56.6	× 50 / 383	−7.4
6	86,626	2498.9	− 2531	−32.1	× 76 / 383	−6.4
7	86,627	2516.0	− 2552	−36	× 87 / 383	−8.2
8	86,628	2521.3	− 2567	−45.7	× 80 / 383	−9.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,726	2415.5	− 2432	−16.5	× 61 / 450	−2.2
4	88,727	2467.8	− 2473	−5.2	× 49 / 450	−0.6
5	88,728	2444.2	− 2502	−57.8	× 65 / 450	−8.3
6	88,729	2449.5	− 2531	−81.5	× 100 / 450	−18.1
7	88,730	2506.5	− 2552	−45.5	× 71 / 450	−7.2
8	88,731	2527.8	− 2567	−39.2	× 104 / 450	−9.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,617	2364.7	− 2432	−67.3	× 49 / 416	−7.9
4	88,618	2434.1	− 2473	−38.9	× 63 / 416	−5.9
5	88,619	2491.4	− 2502	−10.6	× 49 / 416	−1.2
6	88,620	2448.4	− 2531	−82.6	× 89 / 416	−17.7
7	88,621	2476.0	− 2552	−76	× 96 / 416	−17.5
8	88,622	2524.5	− 2567	−42.5	× 70 / 416	−7.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,600	2378.8	− 2432	−53.2	× 54 / 446	−6.4
4	88,601	2439.2	− 2473	−33.8	× 57 / 446	−4.3
5	88,602	2457.6	− 2502	−44.4	× 58 / 446	−5.8
6	88,603	2477.2	− 2531	−53.8	× 91 / 446	−11
7	88,604	2464.2	− 2552	−87.8	× 90 / 446	−17.7
8	88,605	2490.7	− 2567	−76.3	× 96 / 446	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	88,290	2402.4	− 2432	−29.6	× 67 / 442	−4.5
4	88,291	2433.3	− 2473	−39.7	× 57 / 442	−5.1
5	88,292	2472.3	− 2502	−29.7	× 53 / 442	−3.6
6	88,293	2461.6	− 2531	−69.4	× 103 / 442	−16.2
7	88,294	2527.8	− 2552	−24.2	× 79 / 442	−4.3
8	88,295	2505.3	− 2567	−61.7	× 83 / 442	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −39, −50, −47, −45, −42, −46, −57, −62, −45 → −46.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 3 · 2021→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 17 → average 6.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.8 × 2.66 = 18.1. Upper limit −28.6, lower limit −64.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.